INDIA: Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee declares that Islamabad must give up claims to war-torn region first before progress can be made, writes Rahul Bedi , in New Delhi.
India's prime minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, has declared that India and Pakistan could settle the contentious Kashmir problem, which has bedevilled relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours for 56 years since independence, provided Islamabad gives up its claims to the war-torn region.
"Until Pakistan changes its perception about Jammu and Kashmir - that because it is a Muslim-majority state, it should be a part of Pakistan - no meaningful discussions can take place on this matter," Mr Vajpayee told the weekly India Today news magazine on the eve of his departure for the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad.
However, the ailing 79-year old Mr Vajpayee, a Hindu nationalist leader and nuclear hawk, also declared he was optimistic that the Kashmir dispute that brought the rivals close to war last year, could be resolved in his lifetime.
So far, India has rejected peace talks saying they could be held only if Islamabad ended support for Muslim insurgents fighting for over 14 years for an independent Islamic homeland in Kashmir that is divided between the two but claimed by both. Over 65,000 people have died in the Kashmiri insurgency.
Pakistan denies fuelling Kashmir's "proxy war" - even though President Pervez Musharraf tacitly admitted last year that Muslim insurgents were using Pakistan as a "staging post", and has repeatedly called for peace talks.
But Western diplomats and analysts said media speculation surrounding Mr Vajpayee's Pakistani visit had not only overshadowed the seven-nation SAARC summit, but also raised expectations with both sides playing to the gallery without a readiness to jettison decades of mutual mistrust.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars along the Kashmir border besides conducting tit-for-tat nuclear tests.
"What is more likely to emerge from Vajpayee's Pakistan trip would be a quiet agreement to kick-start a dialogue between foreign ministry officials and civil servants from the two sides," a European diplomat said.
"The talks, prompted by the US are little better than atmospherics that are geared to the international community that is keen to defuse tension amongst the nuclear rivals, Pakistan specialist Prof Satish Kumar said.
They come when winter has already set in and cross-border movement across snow-bound mountain passes is difficult.
India admits infiltration by Pakistani militants into Kashmir has reduced considerably since last November's ceasefire along the line of control came into effect.
But security officials claim they will remain wary until spring, when snow in the Himalayan mountain passes melts and infiltration can start again.
Speculation, however, remains rife on whether Mr Vajpayee who, so far, has ruled out meeting his Pakistani counterpart Mr Zafarullah Khan Jamali and President Musharraf or both on the sidelines of the SAARC summit will relent closer to the time.
Both sides, meanwhile, need something positive to carry away from the Islamabad summit.
Mr Vajpayee is leading his BJP party into elections later this year and his Hindu nationalist allies, opposed to Muslims, see any conciliation towards Pakistan as an electoral negative.
The prime minister has been a member of the BJP's parent organisation - the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a secretive extremist Hindu group believed to have a deep-seated bias against Muslims and Christians - since his student days. The group was founded in 1925 to "protect" Hinduism from Islam's sullying influence.
Mr Vajpayee's two previous summits with Pakistani leaders - prime minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan in 1999 and with Gen Musharraf in India in 2001 - failed to sustain hopes of improved ties and generated the perception amongst the RSS and BJP cadres that Pakistan had managed to finesse India and gain the upper hand because of their leader's misplaced optimism and sentimentality.
But Gen Musharraf, Pakistan's self-proclaimed president and his beleaguered country, have more at stake than elections and remain desperate for international acceptance and legitimacy.
The president and his country are hostage to fundamentalist Islamist groups for co-operating with the US in its war against Afghanistan's Taliban militia and for adopting a conciliatory approach to "infidel" Hindu India.
With superior firepower, public and official support and close links with the Pakistani army and the secretive Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, these outfits operate as independent powers within the country. Last month they tried assassinating Gen Musharraf twice in 11 days for his "enlightened moderation".
Pakistan, accused of selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, remains expelled from the Commonwealth and an undeclared "pariah" state.
The country is also home to thousands of trained jihadi's (Islamic warriors ) waiting for the the next jihad. Consequently, Pakistan desperately needs to score a significant diplomatic victory at the summit.
"The two sides should take the opportunity offered by SAARC to agree to start a structured dialogue," Mr Sandeep Waslekar of the International Centre for Peace Initiatives in the western Indian port city of Bombay said.
Otherwise, the confidence building and sense of euphoria will last a month or two and after that it will be back to square one, he added ominously.
Reuters adds: Two suspected Muslim rebels attacked a crowded railway station in Indian Kashmir yesterday, killing four security men and wounding at least 12 people before being killed themselves, police said.