THERE will be 110 seats in the Northern Ireland Forum, to be elected on May 30th. Of these, 90 will be filled from the 18 Westminster parliamentary constituencies, each of which will return five delegates.
The other 20 seats will go to the 10 parties two seats to each party which receive the highest total number of votes throughout Northern Ireland. These regional seats may be the main chance for the smaller parties.
The description of the elections as a `dog's dinner' or a `pig's breakfast' probably owes much to the method of allocating the 90 constituency seats.
The implications for the voters are simple. The procedure is very similar to a British general election voters will express a simple categorical choice by placing an X beside one of the 24 parties listed on the ballot.
The implications for the parties are also simple namely, to poll as many votes as possible. The absence of a preferential ballot and vote transfers means that every party is competing against the others for as many votes as possible.
Stage One of the count is to establish she `Droop' quota. The valid vote in each constituency is divided by the number of seats plus one (six in all cases, since each constituency is a five seater) and one vote is added to the total. The quota produced by this division works out at 16.67 per cent of the valid vote. Parties get one seat for each quota achieved.
After the quota seats have been allocated, the remaining seats in each constituency will be filled by the `d'Hondt' method. It is expected that at least one or two seats in each constituency will have to be filled by the `d'Hondt' method.
As a working example of how the system will operate, let us take the votes cast in Belfast North in the 1993 District Council elections.
Stage One is to establish the Droop quota. The valid vote (34,909) is divided by the number of seats plus one (six) and one vote is added to the total. This works out at 5,819. The UUP and SF exceed the quota, and are entitled to one seat each.
Stage Two is the determination of the remaining three seats using the d'Hondt, or highest average, method.
Each party's vote is divided by the number of seats it has already won, plus one. In this Belfast North example, the UUP and SF vote is divided by two (the one seat already won, plus one), while the vote for each party which has not won a seat is divided by one.
After this calculation, (see second column in table), the DUP's vote of 5,680 wins the third seat.
From now on, the DUP's vote is also divided by two (one seat won, plus one), so the SDLP's vote of 4,950 takes the fourth seat (see third column in table). With the SDLP's vote now also divided by two, the UUP is able to take the fifth seal with 4,765 (see fourth column in table).
If an party had received two seats before the final seat had been allocated, its total would subsequently have been divided by three (the two seats won, plus one).
The individuals to fill the seats won by the parties are then chosen on the basis of their party's constituency list. The first name on the list takes the first seat, and so on.
Finally, the votes from all the parties across Northern Ireland are aggregated by the Chief Electoral Officer to determine the top 10 parties and their share of the vote. Each party in the top 10 gets an additional two seats. These two seats will be filled from their party's regional list of candidates, which must include at least two names that have not appeared on constituency lists.