Hopes among students and parents that CAO points might fall dramatically this year look set to be dashed because of Government cutbacks at third level and a freeze on the number of places at several colleges.
With the deadline for CAO applications fast approaching, admissions officers in most colleges, but particularly universities, expect points to stabilise, and possibly rise in some cases.
Points have been falling steadily in recent years because of demographic changes, but this year other factors could prove crucial.
The cuts in spending at third level by the Government have caused serious problems in colleges, with staff being laid off and services curtailed.
Consequently colleges do not have the capacity to create extra places for students, as they have done over the last decade.
Universities have also called a halt to their usual expansion. Trinity College this year has decided to freeze the number of places it offers school-leavers, while NUI Maynooth, in Co Kildare, is fast approaching its limit of 5,500 undergraduate students. With the supply of places barely increasing, demand is not falling as had been anticipated two or three years ago. A huge influx of returning emigrants and non-nationals has pushed up the numbers applying to the CAO. The rising number of mature students has also contributed to this trend. Last year, about 9,000 applicants were drawn from these groups - known as "non-standard" applicants.
University admissions officers say that, overall, the next few years should mean "fewer students chasing more places", but this year because of the gloomy economic situation and other factors CAO points are unlikely to dip very much. However, in the Institute of Technology sector there is a better chance that points will fall and in some cases just having the basic subject requirements will probably be enough.
Mr John McGinnity, assistant registrar and admissions officer at NUI Maynooth, said that while the number of school-leavers was on the wane, other factors meant points would not tumble this year.He said that particularly in the universities there was still massive over-subscription, with only about 20,000 places available for over 50,000 Leaving Cert candidates.
He said universities could not increase capacity greatly because new courses required staff and resources. He said the only unknown factor at this stage was the performance of students in the Leaving Cert. This had been improving slightly each year and the general rule was that increased exam performance meant higher points.
The 13 Institutes of Technology are experiencing serious financial difficulties. Their directors recently warned they would have to borrow substantial sums to meet commitments in 2003.
The directors said the Estimates did not cover the full range of pay rises for 2003. They said there was a shortfall of about €39 million across the sector.