VOTING TRENDS: Voters in Dublin decided the fate of the abortion referendum, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
Victory, President John F. Kennedy once said, has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. The phrase has new meaning in Ireland, as pro-choice and anti-abortionists claim the credit for the referendum's defeat.
Judging by television coverage yesterday, one could have been forgiven for believing that Dublin voters had turned out in unprecedented numbers to wield a blow for liberal Ireland.
Every single one of the 11 Dublin constituencies, from leafy Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South East to the predominantly working-class Dublin West, opted to say No, often by margins of two to one. The figures in Dublin often mirrored those achieved in the 1995 divorce referendum, though it can be strongly argued that a line cannot be credibly drawn between the two issues.
Instead, it is probably more meaningful to compare yesterday's outcome with that achieved in the 1983 right to life referendum and the 1992 "three-in-one" battle on the same issue.
By this yardstick, the key to the defeat of the Government's proposal lies not in the fact that Dublin voted more heavily than ever before, but that they did so more heavily than anywhere else on this occasion.
The Republic's most liberal constituency, Dún Laoghaire, achieved a 53.15 per cent turnout - the country's highest - with 31,476 (68.23 per cent) saying No and 14,653 (31.77 per cent) Yes.
Though strong, the Dún Laoghaire turnout is still far behind that achieved in the 1992 referendum when 68.7 per cent voted - though it must be said that that plebiscite was held along with a general election. In the 1983 abortion referendum, 58.6 per cent of the constituency came out to vote in a failed bid to block the referendum that gave Ireland Article 40.3.3 of the Constitution.
In Dublin South, 53.11 per cent voted. Of that, 64.95 per cent voted No while 35.05 per cent chose Yes. In 1992, 69 per cent in the constituency came out. In 1983, the figure was 62.2 per cent.
The outcome in both could reflect upon the general election, if voters in Dún Laoghaire choose to penalise Fianna Fáil's Minister of State, Ms Mary Hanafin, for helping to lead the Yes campaign.
Progressive Democrat Minister of State, Ms Liz O'Donnell, might be similarly at risk in Dublin South if the liberal wing there chooses partly to blame her for putting the issue before them at all.
In Dublin West, 45.49 per cent showed up at the polling stations. Of this, 63.73 per cent voted No while 36.27 per cent ticked Yes. In 1983, 52.3 per cent voted. In 1992, the figure was higher again, at 65 per cent.
Voters in the Taoiseach's Dublin Central constituency rejected his call to vote Yes - 39.64 per cent turned out, dividing 58.98 per cent against and 41.02 per cent in favour.
In 1983, 49.6 per cent of people in Dublin Central voted in favour of the right to life referendum, though opinion had changed considerably by the 1992 campaign.
Cork North Central, where 41.88 per cent voted, divided by a narrow margin against the Government: 50.51 per cent voted No, and 49.49 per cent Yes. In 1983, 48.9 per cent voted in favour of the right to life referendum.
In 1992, 66.6 per cent in the constituency voted - with 30,024 people (66.11 per cent) against removing suicide as a ground for abortion in the aftermath of the X case. If liberal Dún Laoghaire came out in numbers, Donegal North East, one of the country's most conservative regions, stayed at home, partly because of heavy rain, and partly, perhaps, because of confusion. Just 33.57 per cent of people in the predominantly rural constituency voted, 70.59 per cent for the Yes campaign.
ICork North West, 45.82 per cent voted on Wednesday, with 61.83 per cent supporting a Yes vote. In 1982, however, the turnout was 62.3 per cent, while in 1992 it was higher again, at 75.4 per cent.
The same picture is reflected in Limerick West. Of the 42.53 per cent turnout, 58.81 per centvoted Yes.