Schools still main setting for Covid outbreaks but figures fall considerably

Schools have once again accounted for the greatest number of Covid-19 outbreaks in public settings, now for the fourth week in a row, although the overall number of clusters has fallen considerably.

Meanwhile, the number of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in December has already surpassed 100,000, with nine days left in the month.

The 6,307 confirmed cases on Wednesday brings the number of cases this month so far to 102,849. Only two other months had more than 100,000 cases. In January there were 105,159 cases and last month had 122,870. At current projections, there were will be at least 150,000 cases this month alone of Covid-19.

Furthermore, as the education sector prepares for a review of health measures due to the threat of the Omicron variant, latest epidemiological data shows there were 22 outbreaks in those settings reported in the week to December 18th, concentrated largely at primary level.

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The weekly data, provided by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC), shows this level of clusters to be the highest of any area of society excluding family-related outbreaks, followed by residential institutions and acute hospitals.

Positive overall

However, the overall pattern is more positive – it is the lowest number of outbreaks in school settings recorded in the past five weeks when they began to become dominant in statistical analysis. At their height in late November, they reached 45. In the last week alone, school outbreak reports have reduced by 40 per cent.

A cluster or outbreak is defined as two or more confirmed cases of Covid-19 and in the context of schools it applies to children and/or school staff. The HPSC also notes that transmission is not necessarily within the school itself.

Most school outbreaks are associated with settings in the east of the country. In the latest weekly set of data, 16 of the 22 recorded outbreaks were in primary schools while the other six were in special education settings. No clusters were recorded at post-primary level.

Since the beginning of March 2020, there have now been 1,279 outbreaks in schools, with 6,613 linked cases.

Overall cluster numbers in the last week have fallen by 68, from 164 to 96, a level dropping below the 100 mark for the first time in recent reporting.

The latest cluster data set also records 21 outbreaks in residential institutions, eight in acute hospitals, seven in nursing homes, four in workplaces and two in childcare.

New figures from the (HPSC) also show that the introduction of antigen testing and masks in primary schools has seen a dramatic fall in the number of cases among those aged 5-12.

Antigen tests for close contacts in primary schools were introduced on November 29th, and masks on December 1st, for those in third class and up. Cases in the 5-12 age group peaked during the first week of December at almost 7,000 and has since fallen to 4,500 in the week to December 18th.

The HPSC figures show that one child in eight in the State has tested positive for Covid-19. A total of 153,653 cases have been confirmed in the zero to 18 age group, representing 12.5 per cent of all children in that age group and almost a quarter of all cases during the pandemic.

Age cohorts

The rise in cases is being driven by those aged 19-34. Cases have more than doubled in those cohorts in the week from December 14th to 21st. In those aged 19-24 they have increased by 193.7 per cent.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) head of modelling Prof Philip Nolan has warned that Covid-19 is spreading fastest in young people and this will show up in a rise in cases in the coming days.

Currently, 30.3 per cent of those aged 19-24 have tested positive after a PCR test and 25.3 per cent of those aged 25-34 have also tested positive.

“This is a time for extreme caution, as we do not yet know how seriously ill people will become, and we must do everything we can to slow and contain the spread,” he tweeted.

“As a high force of infection builds in the adult population it represents a risk, which we can’t yet quantify, to them, to the vulnerable, and to children.

“Omicron spreads first in cities, and Dublin has the highest incidence and growth rate. These early signs are not good. Be cautious, stay safe, and look after each other in the coming days.”

He also noted an increase in hospital admissions to 64 and 75 in the past two days where previously the average had been 50. Hospital admissions, though, remain on a downward trajectory, dropping from 685 on this day last month to 429 this evening.