New Covid restrictions not expected to be on the cards amid Nphet meeting

There has rarely been such a level of equanimity in Government in advance of a meeting of the State’s public health emergency team, let alone at a time with soaring Covid case numbers.

Repeatedly in recent months, Ministers waited nervously for a late-night letter from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on a Thursday night following a meeting of the body earlier that day. Repeatedly Ministers were surprised by recommendations from Nphet for new restrictions, in some cases finding out about them in morning news reports the following day.

Nphet meets on Thursday afternoon but there is little or no expectation in Government of a repeat of earlier surprises. While Nphet member and chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan is expected to write to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly this evening, Ministers and senior officials do not expect recommendations for any new restrictions.

Partly this is because the spread of Covid-19 is so wide throughout the community that tightening restrictions is more or less pointless. According to people briefed on a discussion between Nphet members and senior officials on Wednesday, the advice from the public health team is that such is the spread of the virus in recent weeks, it is becoming impossible not to be close to someone who has the disease. It will be hard to avoid catching the Omicron variant if you haven’t already had it. This makes the urgency of the booster campaign, with third shots of Covid vaccines proven to reduce the seriousness of illness, all the greater. That, rather than further restrictions, is likely to be the focus of Government efforts in the coming weeks.

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There is still a high level of concern in political and healthcare circles about the pressure on hospitals, however. That pressure is not yet near its peak, sources say. There is also concern about another respiratory virus in hospitals, medics warn. But there is plenty of data emerging from other countries to suggest that while hospitals will see pressure from people becoming ill with Omicron, there is a much-reduced chance of them becoming seriously ill – or at least so seriously ill that they require treatment in intensive care units.

If the expectation of some senior people in Government is borne out, and the post-Christmas spread of the new variant is not countered by severe new restrictions, then that is not just a vote of confidence in the vaccines – it is a significant change of approach which will have implications for policy in the months ahead.