It’s all about when – not if – Covid restrictions will be lifted

Public health officials meet on Wednesday to decide how to advise the Government on the roadmap for the further re-opening of society.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) is holding its first meeting in August to a background of rising Covid-19 cases, but also mounting impatience about the speed with which restrictions are being eased.

Ireland currently has the second highest incidence of the disease in the European Union, notwithstanding its long lockdowns, close and widespread adherence to public health measures and, latterly, high take-up of Covid-19 vaccines.

At the same time, restrictions remain tighter than in many countries, in particular in relation to live events and indoor activities ranging from nightclubs to funerals.

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Having ticked all the action points in Nphet's play-book, people are understandably hungry for greater freedom, whether that is to go to Electric Picnic or to attend the obsequies of a deceased friend.

As so often during the pandemic, officials are pleading for more time before measures are relaxed. At Tuesday's briefing, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan suggested it would be another four to six weeks before some of the remaining measures could be relaxed.

Before that happens, officials want the current wave of cases to have peaked, and for more people to be vaccinated.

Ireland already has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world but, faced with the highly transmissible Delta variant, officials say we need to get buy-in from even more people.

Less than half of 16- to 29-year-olds are at least seven days after a second dose, they pointed out.

Peak

The good news is that the growth of the virus appears to have stalled in the current wave. Nphet believes cases will peak in “mid to late” September but this could happen earlier if the variant proves less transmissible among children than adults, as appears to be the case.

While officials continue to say the opening and closure of schools has had minimal effects on incidence, they are warning of a “transient” rise in cases when pupils return to classrooms in the coming weeks.

Not for the first time in the pandemic, there is considerable spillover of cases from Northern Ireland. The three counties with the highest incidence in the Republic abut the Border, while the North has the highest incidence within the UK. Aside from the usual handwringing and affirmations of cooperation, not much will be done about this.

Although the overall picture is uncertain, it remains a case of how we lift restrictions, rather than whether they should be lifted at all. Vaccines are working, notwithstanding the Delta variant. The figures on case numbers are bending towards Nphet’s more optimistic scenario.

For now, the practicalities of returning to some kind of normal remain unclear. Officials sensibly advised people to be cautious in their mixing given the high levels of disease circulating at present, but their advice about congregation was at times confusing.

Dr Holohan effectively said he was happy for vaccinated people to attend events such as the All-Ireland final or Electric Picnic and for the unvaccinated to be kept out.

At the same briefing, his Nphet colleague and university lecturer Prof Philip Nolan was firm in ruling out the exclusion of unvaccinated students from third-level lectures. It wasn't just that he disagreed with it; he felt it would serve little use.

Prof Nolan rightly sees education as essential; no doubt many music and arts promoters would also see their activities as essential. Is teaching Friel or Shaw in the lecture hall more important than putting it on the stage?

Regardless of calls by particular interests, Nphet and Government are likely to prioritise the return of education for the coming weeks. Only if that goes well will the green light be given for wider opening.