Is it safe for children to go back to school now?

The big return to school is taking place against a backdrop of considerable nervousness among parents and teachers.

On the one hand, 70 per cent of the total population and 88 per cent of adults are vaccinated against Covid-19 and wider society is on a road towards reopening.

On the other, the virus is circulating widely, with Ireland currently having the second-highest incidence in the EU. This is also the first time schools have reopened with the highly transmissible Delta variant dominant.

Health officials and the Government have sought to reassure people that the reopening will be safe, that schools and children have never been the focus of major transmission and that extra measures have been taken to minimise the risk of outbreaks.

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In contrast, the zero Covid-advocating Independent Scientific Advocacy Group (ISAG) has predicted the “mass infection” of unvaccinated children, with consequent deaths of teachers, children and their family members.

So which of these wildly conflicting scenarios will turn out to be true?

Children with Covid-19 typically recover within a week and few experience long-lasting infection, according to a recent large-scale study

Let’s start with what we know. Children, thankfully, have been less affected by Covid-19 than adults and are less likely to transmit the virus. It appears they are also less likely to transmit the Delta variant.

By and large, schools with proper mitigation measures in place have turned out to be safer for children than the community. Cases have tended to rise somewhat after they reopened, but they also tended to fall again quickly.

Spread rapidly

In recent months, the Delta variant has spread rapidly, particularly among unvaccinated groups. The result has been a big rise in cases, particularly among those aged 13-24. Over the past fortnight, there have been about 8,000 cases among children aged 18 and under, out of a total of 25,000 infections.

That is clearly a high base on which to be returning to school. Yet among this population the translation into serious illness is minimal. On Tuesday there were just four children with Covid-19 in hospital, and none in intensive care.

In the UK, five times as many children are in hospital at present for RSV, a nasty respiratory virus that is common among children, as for Covid-19.

ISAG makes much of the perils of long Covid, claiming a “significant proportion” of children will succumb to persistent illness.

Yet children with Covid-19 typically recover within a week and few experience long-lasting infection, according to a recent large-scale study in the UK. Less than 2 per cent had symptoms after eight weeks. Another British study found the long Covid rate among young people was three cases per 100,000.

For the return to school, the World Health Organisation has recommended that face masks, ventilation, vaccination, regular testing of children and staff, smaller class sizes where possible, physical distancing, sanitation and hand hygiene should all be employed.

There is a countervailing argument that masks should be removed soon for all schoolgoing children, because of the negative impact on their wellbeing

Ireland ticks most of these boxes. Schools have taken steps to improve ventilation and have been provided with carbon dioxide monitors to measure air quality, though air filters have not been supplied. Physical distancing is in place and children are generally divided into pods.

Masks and tests

Critics point to the absence of antigen testing in schools but PCR testing is widely available with results coming on a next-day basis.

Children at second level wear masks for longer than almost any other group outside frontline health workers. People can huddle together unmasked in a cafe, but teenagers in the classroom, who are physically separated, are required to wear masks six hours a day.

Some have argued that masks should be required for younger children. There is a countervailing argument that masks should be removed soon for all schoolgoing children, because of the negative impact on their wellbeing.

As for staff in education, there is no evidence teachers were at greater risk of infection than other workers earlier in the pandemic, though this was before the Delta variant came along.

This time round, teachers have been offered the option of vaccination and most have availed of it. At least 148,000 of the 12-15 age group are at least partially vaccinated, as are two-thirds of 16 and 17 year olds. In Scotland, cases have risen sharply following the return to school a few weeks ago, but many of the mitigation measures in place in Ireland are absent there.

Ultimately, as Prof Philip Nolan has said, a safe return to school will be dependent on adequate monitoring. Any outbreaks will have to be identified quickly and contacts traced without delay. Parents will have to keep children at home whenever they show relevant symptoms.

In the winter, distinguishing Covid from flu and other respiratory conditions may prove tricky, but by then widespread vaccination may have done the job of halting the current wave.