Having faced criticism for laying out a draft vaccination schedule now partly upended by supply problems, the Government is loath to make firm promises on timing.While significant uncertainties on vaccine supply remain, here is an update on what the rollout looks like for different groups.

1. Nursing home residents over 65 years of age and frontline workers While there have been disputes about the order and speed of these two top priority groups being vaccinated, there will clearly be enough supply between January and March for people in these groups – and generally – with two vaccination doses.

2. The over-70s

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The next group on the priority list are those over the age of 70.Within this group, the Government has said it will start with the over-85s, who have been told their GPs will contact them within two weeks.

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They will then work down the age groups – the next group will be 80-84 year olds, followed by 75-79 year olds and then those aged 70-74.

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee has said that the AstraZeneca vaccine can be given to older people – but the policy approach is to give the Pfizer or Modern vaccines in preference to older people for now.* This will complicate delivery as AstraZeneca it is by far the easiest to deliver via GPs, but it does appear that GPs will be asked to deliver the Pfizer vaccines to the over-85s in the next few weeks. With more data expected shortly from AstraZeneca, this guidance may change in the weeks ahead.

The original hope had been to have all over-70s vaccinated by the end of March.

Supply delays mean there may be 1.1 million vaccines available over the first three months of the year – or perhaps a bit more as new deals are done – down from the 1.4 million we had hoped for.

Professor Brian MacCraith, head of the vaccine task force, gave an illustration on Newstalk radio on Wednesday. Based on receiving 1.4 million vaccines in the first quarter, he said there could be almost 530,000 people with two vaccinations and 190,000 with one by the end of March.

This would include 75,000 people in long-term care and 150,00 frontline workers with two vaccinations. Of the over-70s, some 300,000 would have had two vaccinations and 200,000 would have had one dose and could expect the second one between April and June.

The shortfall now appearing in supply will likely lead to some reduction in the numbers of over-70s vaccinated by the end March as older age groups get priority. The decision to not use the AstraZeneca vaccine initially for this group will also be a complication and we have yet to hear if it is expected to cause furthe delays.

Any shortfall will push out the programme for the larger 70-75 age group, in particular, to between April and June.

All the over-70s will not be done with two vaccinations by the end of March – particularly given the likely gap of 9-12 weeks between AstraZenca vaccinations – but work will be well under way.

3. Other higher-priority groups

There are a range of groups who follow on the priority list, though the order could change. Interestingly, there may be some spare AstraZeneca vaccine in the next few weeks, which had been intended for older age groups, which may be directed to some of the next in priority.

Next in line as things stand include groups such as other healthcare workers not in direct patient contact, 65 -69 year olds, people living or working in crowded settings and education workers.

Prof MacCraith indicated he hoped for a large increase in supply in the second quarter allowing more than 250,000 vaccinations a week. This could keep the campaign on track to get the bulk of the other priority groups done in that quarter and get a decent start on vaccinating the large 55 -64 general age group, currently twelfth on the priority list. According to the latest EU supply schedule, Ireland could by the end of June have enough supply to vaccinate roughly half the population.

4. The rest of the population

The challenge in the third quarter, starting in July, is likely to be to complete the 55-64 group and then move on to the general under-55 adult population.

It will require a relentless progress of over 250,000 vaccinations a week to get the bulk of the adult population done by the end of September, which was the original mooted target. Taoiseach Micheál Martin has suggested it might be closer to the end of the year before the programme is completed. Plans for under-18s have still to be clarified.

* This article was updated following the announcement on Wednesday that preference would be given to the Pfizer vaccine for older people, initially anyway.