Covid-19 incidence rate in Ireland higher than Sweden’s for first time

The incidence of Covid-19 in Ireland is higher than it is in Sweden for the first time in the pandemic, new figures show.

Ireland recorded 30.6 cases of the virus per 100,000 population over the last 14 days, according to an update today from the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC).

This is up to 12 times higher than Ireland’s lowest incidence, recorded in late June, but marks a slight improvement on the previous day after weeks of steady increase.

Sweden, where aversion to lockdowns and most other stringent restrictions has attracted massive international scrutiny, saw its incidence drop steeply in the latest ECDC update, to 23.4 cases per 100,000 population.

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The death rate in both countries is the same, at 0.1 per 100,000 population over the past 14 days.

At least 17 other European countries now have lower incidences of Covid-19 than Ireland, despite many of them experiencing increases over the past few months.

The figures show that while Ireland was not alone in experiencing a rise in cases over this period, its surge was bigger than in many other EU states.

Continental increase

The UK, Germany, Iceland and Denmark, which also have lower incidence than Ireland, appear to have had greater success than Ireland in controlling surges experienced in late summer.

Sweden, which kept most schools and businesses open during the height of the pandemic, suffered a higher death rate than its neighbours. But the pace of new infections and deaths has slowed markedly since the end of June.

Spain has the highest incidence of the disease in Europe, at 205.5, followed by Malta (94.6), France (88.7), Croatia (87.1) and Romania (84.1).

There are currently nine countries on Ireland's green list to which people can travel without having to quarantine. The list was last updated in early August; Ryanair has called for it to be extended to include other countries with lower incidence of the disease.

According to the ECDC, the incidence of Covid-19 across Europe has been increasing for 38 days. Rates are rising in Ireland and 13 other countries.

Trust

One of the World Health Organisation's six special envoys on Covid-19 has highlighted Sweden's virus response as a model that other countries should be emulating in the long run.

Dr David Nabarro, speaking in a radio interview in New Zealand, said, “For all countries, the real approach we’ve got to aim for is through behaviour that’s adopted everywhere.”

Dr Nabarro said the key to a sustainable coronavirus strategy is trust, and pointed to Sweden as a case in point. The Nordic nation imposed far fewer restrictions on movement than others, and instead relied on Swedes to act responsibly and embrace the guidelines laid out by the country’s health authorities.

“In Sweden, the government was able to trust the public and the public was able to trust the government,” Dr Nabarro told Magic Talk.

Sweden’s Covid-19 death rate is considerably higher than in many other countries, at 57 per 100,000. But the pace of new infections and deaths has slowed markedly since the end of June. The development prompted Sweden’s national health agency to propose raising the limit on certain public gatherings to 500 people from 50.

In contrast, other governments around the world are once again imposing stricter measures amid a resurgence in cases.

Dr Nabarro described a lockdown as “a blunt instrument” that “really bites into the livelihoods of everybody, particularly poorer people and small businesses.”