IT'S a bad time to be Minister for Agriculture. The outlook for traditional farming is bleak, with small producers being squeezed out, existing subsidies threatened and a limit on production in key areas. Mad cow disease puts the tin hat on it.
Given the unfavourable circumstances, Ivan Yates has battled well. But events beyond his control and a number of unforced errors have taken their toll. With a general election looming he has retreated to the barricades: dealing with the beef and cattle problems of Moscow and the Middle East on an ad hoc basis and minimising his exposure.
In spite of CAP reforms, GATT difficulties, the Green Pound and BSE, however, Ivan Yates has a decent relationship with the farming community. John Donnelly of the IFA might engage in ritualised back of a lorry condemnations, demanding higher EU subsidies and Government grants, but Mr Yates is still likely to deliver an increased farming vote to Fine Gael.
Within months of becoming Minister, he introduced a new TB eradication scheme and initiated a five year food development programme.
Even before the BSE crisis he risked unpopularity by warning farmers that record income growth (40 per cent in four years) was ending. There were tough times ahead. In 10 years, he predicted, the number of full time farmers would be about 60,000, with the remainder relying on State and EU supports.
The inexperience of the Wexford TD showed when he was "bounced" by his officials into declaring the State would pay all EU fines flowing from the beef tribunal. He welcomed Larry Goodman back to the helm of his company but, within a year - as EU fines came in from Brussels wished to see the back of him.
Then there was BSE. Domestic prices tumbled, markets were closed and the Government promised a statutory food authority to reassure consumers. As the manure hit the fan, Mr Yates claimed to have signed a Russian contract at Dublin Airport at a time when he was in his Wexford constituency. It was hugely damaging. His woes were not eased by the revelation that Ben Dunne had paid £5,000 towards his 1992 election expenses.
A lender in waiting within Fine Gael, Mr Yates's hard edged economic conservatism has been undisguised. He backed John Bruton at a crucial stage against Alan Dukes and benefited by becoming the party's finance spokesman. As the owner of a string of bookie shops, he understands all about political odds. But his lack of judgment in government, under pressure, must be a concern.