Harney beats the odds to confound pundits

It was an otherwise quiet day for the bookmakers when the Tánaiste called to collect her election winnings at the Paddy Power betting shop in Dublin's Baggot Street yesterday.

Among the modest attractions offered to punters was the afternoon dog-racing at Catford, where a greyhound called Tickle Mary was fancied in the 3.07. And although Mary Harney was clearly tickled at the success of her €20 bet on the Progressive Democrats winning eight seats, she resisted the temptation to reinvest any of the winnings.

There was little appeal either in the horse-racing meetings at Goodwood and Beverley - the latter a reminder, if the Tánaiste needed one, of the sort of challenges that can arise when sharing government with Fianna Fáil. Conditions at Beverley were said to be "good to firm". But between tribunals and troubled public finances, the going could yet get heavy for the incoming government.

So it was no surprise that Ms Harney considered it "far too early" to collect on a second pre-election bet: €20 at 33-1 on the PDs being part of the next administration.

Her own preference was for a return to government, she admitted, but there were "mixed feelings" in her new parliamentary party. The thin 1-6 odds now offered by Paddy Power on a resumption of the FF-PD arrangement were not very good value, she declared.

Political commentators, who failed to predict the PD surge, can only have been impressed by Ms Harney's confidence in betting on eight seats: a result which, only a week ago, seemed to have about the same chance as a three-legged dog at Catford.

So it was perhaps instructive to learn yesterday that she had lost her docket, and the shop had to reconstruct a copy for the occasion. Lest this imply any lack of confidence in the prediction, however, party handlers were quick to detail a series of other successful wagers in the PD camp.

As negotiations on the new government get under way, Bertie Ahern will be interested to learn that, in Mary Harney's party, he is dealing with hardened gamblers. He may also be intrigued by the odds offered on the timing of the next general election, ranging from 50-1 for later this year to 5-4 for 2007.

Anyone tempted by the latter bet should note that the same odds were on offer in the Government's special savings scheme (SSIS), which closed last month. After Fine Gael's dramatic fall, there are few certainties. But barring the collapse of the State in the next five years, the SSIS should still be a safe bet.