Glee at Blair's own goal at Wembley

New Labour has only itself to blame.

New Labour has only itself to blame.

Mr Blair's minders frequently condemn the media obsession with spin doctoring, casting themselves as more sinned against than sinning, victims of "spin journalists" whose fixation with trivia conspires against the Prime Minister's determination to focus on the famous big picture.

There are times when the charge is doubtless justified. However, the obsession, if such it is, has been learned from a party machine badly addicted to the habit. And there can hardly be real surprise in Downing Street at the media's gleeful response on finding that the skills of which New Labour apparatchiks were once so proud seem now to have deserted them.

That glee was unmistakable in the coverage of last Wednesday's debacle, when members of the Women's Institute heckled, jeered and slow-handclapped a Prime Minister previously thought to walk on water.

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All manner of experts were on hand to explain how badly Mr Blair had misjudged his audience, with their well-developed hostility to party politicking. That said, one of the most damning comments on the whole affair was that the Prime Minister's mistake was to use the WI as the backdrop for political points which might have appeared bland in any other setting. In any event, it was hard not to sympathise with Alistair Campbell's initial inclination. The Prime Minister's press secretary was content to put the embarrassment down to the bad manners of a minority of oppositionists, and assume, at worst, a 48-hour wonder.

It was the Women's Institute, after all. And it certainly seemed a bit much to conclude from one, albeit painful, and (for this Prime Minister) unprecedented incident, that the Middle Englanders who had found shelter in his big tent had turned on their high heels and marched out.

Ninety-six hours later, however, the headlines were still damning, the inevitable Sunday review of Mr Blair's worst week fuelled by fresh evidence of collapse in the opinion polls. "3% Poll Shock: Blair's Lead Is Vanishing" declared the Mail on Sunday.

In the Wembley aftermath a MORI survey found Labour support at 41 per cent, with the Tories just three points behind, and closer to Labour than at any point for eight years.

The MORI poll, reflecting something of a pattern over recent months, seemed to crystallise the feeling that something dramatic was happening beneath the surface of British politics; specifically that William Hague has connected with voters on a range of issues from asylum and crime, to tax and the euro, and put the Tories dramatically back in play.

The Mail reported MORI's Bob Worcester saying he expected Labour to bounce back to a seven or 10-point lead once the WI/Wembley effect had worn off, and remained confident Mr Blair would win the next election. But he said the survey carried a clear warning to the government: "Voters see Labour as a government of spin rather than delivery. If the opposition was stronger, Blair would be in dead trouble."

Alistair Campbell is famously direct in his assessment of journalistic copy which offends. But he would not find it so easy to dismiss Mr Worcester's views as a load of bull.

For we now know that there are real fears in Labour's high command that Mr Blair "is not believed to be real" and that a key section of the electorate thinks "things have got worse" under his administration.

We know, courtesy of a leaked document prepared by Philip Gould, the Prime Minister's polling and focus group guru, which echoes the Worcester warning that Mr Blair is perceived to lack conviction and to be "all spin and presentation".

Labour's outer circle of ministers brief against each other all the time. However, circulation of this document was confined to Mr Blair's inner circle, and one source who knows the personalities well says it is inconceivable that it was motivated by self-interest or by malice toward the Prime Minister. From that he concludes that somebody close may have decided Mr Blair was growing out of touch, wasn't listening, and was badly in need of a wake-up call.

If in fact the leak was deliberate, it would seem Mr Blair really does have a problem.