The Independents are enjoying the attention as the majority-seeking big parties court them, writes PÁDRAIG COLLINSin Sydney
AUSTRALIA’S federal election campaign could be said to have begun in the early days of winter when Labor MPs were plotting to overthrow prime minister Kevin Rudd and replace him with Julia Gillard.
It is now almost spring, and the country still doesn’t know who won last Saturday’s election. The idea of a hung parliament is so unknown to most Australians (the last one was during the second World War) that the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper yesterday came out with a souvenir poster explaining what it all means.
The seat tallies were finalised last night, with Labor on 72, the Liberal-National coalition with 73, the Greens with one, and Independents at four. But 76 votes are required to rule in the 150-seat parliament, so the Independents and the Greens (who also won four extra Senate seats) are being courted as never before.
New Green MP Adam Brandt is likely to back Labor, and one of the Independents says he does not favour either major party, so coalition leader Tony Abbott needs the remaining three Independents to become prime minister.
On paper it looks a no-brainer; the three are all conservative former members of the National Party who represent bush seats. Australia’s Rupert Murdoch-owned newspapers have been urging them to back Abbott, saying the voters in their constituencies did not vote for a Labor government. The fact they didn’t vote for a coalition government either goes conveniently unmentioned.
But the Independents are happy to take their time, and are enjoying the attention. Their conservative background tells only part of the story, with none of them leaving the National Party on good terms. One, Tony Windsor, says he got rid of “two cancers” in the 1980s, when he gave up smoking and left the Nationals.
The colourful Bob Katter, who was previously more famous for his big cowboy hat than for his politics, said he was not pleased with the previous coalition government.
“Tony Abbott’s mob were in there for 12 years. At the end of the 12 years there was a farmer committing suicide every four days in this country,” he said.
“If they were good for the bush I’m a Martian astronaut.”
The third country Independent, Rob Oakeshott, underplaying the power he now has, suggested that Labor and the Liberals form a unity government. This was immediately dismissed by both major parties.
Andrew Wilkie, who has been elected as an Independent for the island state of Tasmania, has an even more interesting background than the gang of three. He is a former intelligence analyst who quit his government security agency position in 2003 to speak out as a whistleblower against the Iraq war.
He says Abbott has called him to apologise for how the then coalition government under John Howard vilified him over his opposition to the war.
Windsor, Oakeshott and Katter have said they will vote as a bloc when they make up their minds. To that end, they have outlined seven demands required to secure their support.
The first of these – that both major parties submit their policies to the treasury for cost analysis – has proved to be the most contentious. Gillard agreed immediately, but Abbott refused.
Katter’s response was: “What’s Tony got to hide here?” Then yesterday, Abbott announced he would submit the coalition policies for scrutiny after all.
Such is the way he is courting support that many are suggesting Abbott wants Labor to form a minority government on the assumption it won’t last, and that the coalition will win a majority in an election early in the new year.
If so, it is a high-risk strategy which could make all concerned on the other side work harder to make an incoming government work.
All of the focus on what the Independents want has, temporarily at least, veiled the fact that Labor overthrew a first-term prime minister because its polling numbers had dropped under him, but then lost 11 seats, and its majority in the election.
Saving the country from recession – Australia was the only developed economy to avoid recession during the global financial crisis – should have allowed Labor to stroll back to power.
Instead it got a 5.5 per cent swing against it.
There have criticisms about the campaign the party ran, but there will be no major recriminations until after the election is decided. And then, heads will roll.