The escalation in the level of paramilitary threat is likely to intensify calls for the British government to abandon or modify its plans to provide an amnesty for escaped prisoners or those facing possible charges for paramilitary activity - most of them republicans.
The Northern Ireland Association for the Care and Resettlement of Offenders (NIACRO) would welcome any development that would allow the exiled return home. They warn against a simplistic approach to the problem, however, and point to other crucial factors that some politicians may be missing.
"The fact is that in a substantial number of cases local communities would not allow people back because they were involved in anti-social behaviour, drugs dealing, joyriding, or other activity," one community activist explained.
Such has been the pressure from the Conservative Party and the Ulster Unionists that there is now doubt over whether legislation to effect this amnesty, as agreed by the British government at the Weston Park talks last year, could be passed through Westminster.
At the Ulster Unionist Council meeting the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, said the fugitives on the run could return, confess their guilt, be convicted, and then released under the Good Friday agreement's early release scheme, so that they would be processed through the judicial system and have a record.
Last week, Lord Rogan, of the Ulster Unionists, tabled a parliamentary question asking if republicans were prepared to offer anything in return for this amnesty. "The idea of granting an amnesty to on-the-run terrorists is causing grave disquiet across all parties at Westminster. However, equal unease has begun to develop over the (British) government's failure to address the fate of the many individuals exiled from the province by paramilitaries," he added.
There have also been demands that any amnesty for paramilitaries should include an amnesty for police officers and British soldiers facing possible charges over incidents relating to the troubles.
The NIACRO crisis intervention service, Base 2, wants its workload decreased but, said a spokesman, it was essential that a co-ordinated approach to the problem was established.
A case-worker makes a point: "We had a referral where an individual who assaulted a pensioner was forced to leave the country. After a period of time he wanted to come back. So, we asked representatives of the group, which forced him out, if he could return.
"They said, 'Sure, yes, he can return, but tell him before he does that the pensioner he assaulted has four strong grandsons who, irrespective of what we think, have a particular welcome in mind for him when he does return'." He added; "The fact is that quite a number of those forced from their homes might not be tolerated back in their communities, no matter what the paramilitaries said." Another difficulty, according to NIACRO, is in providing housing for people returning to Northern Ireland. For instance, in most cases they would have no homes to return to, as other families would now occupy the Housing Executive properties they fled. And if the threat against them were lifted they would lose their priority ranking on the housing list, presenting social services with the problem of finding temporary accommodation for them.
