A significant movement of blacks from cities to suburbs has big political impact, writes AARON BLAKEin Washington
LOUISIANA’S NEWLY designed 2nd congressional district doesn’t look like it makes much sense – one end of it starts in a tip just north of Baton Rouge, then it juts and jags its way more than 70 miles south and east past New Orleans, seemingly picking up random communities en route.
Most of the people who live in those communities are African- Americans, joined together partly by design and partly by law.
By looping African-Americans into one district, politicians increased the number of Republicans in surrounding districts, virtually ensuring Republicans would hold a major advantage in five of the state’s six congressional districts for the next decade.
As politicians across the US begin the once-a-decade process of redrawing their congressional boundaries, a significant migration of blacks from cities to suburbs is having a widespread political impact.
According to newly released census numbers, eight of the nation’s top majority-black districts lost an average of more than 10 per cent of their African- American populations.
That will provide an opportunity for Republican lawmakers, who control an increasing number of state houses following last autumn’s elections, to reshape districts in suburban swing areas of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and elsewhere.
Dozens of seats could become easier for Republicans to hold on to, with a half-dozen or so becoming prime pick-up opportunities.
“The practical effect is great,” said Dave Wasserman of website the Cook Political Report. “In state after state, it’s allowing Republicans to pack more heavily Democratic close-in suburbs into urban black districts to make surrounding districts more Republican.”
The migration of blacks to the suburbs is also having an impact in the Washington area, where the African-American population in the district dropped 11 per cent over the last decade, while suburban Democratic congressman Steny Hoyer gained more black voters than anyone outside of the fast-growing Atlanta area.
The 1982 amendment of the Voting Rights Act led to the creation of many legislative districts, particularly in the South, in which minorities became the majority populations. The idea was to give minority voters a chance to elect candidates of their choice. Over time, these districts encountered legal challenges and setbacks, including at the Supreme Court, over questions of racial gerrymandering.
Initially, these districts were a boon to Democrats, creating opportunities in places where the party struggled to win. Over the last few rounds of redistricting, though, Republicans have made a habit of “packing” as many reliably Democratic black voters into as few districts as possible.
In the Detroit area, Democratic congressmen John Conyers and Hansen Clarke lost nearly a quarter of the 800,000 black voters in their districts since 2000, with many of them migrating to nearby districts.
The expansion of Clarke’s and Conyers’s districts could help Michigan Republicans eliminate a Democratic district in the area.
The same goes in Ohio, where Democratic congresswoman Marcia Fudge’s loss of 29,000 black voters means her district will have to grow, while Republicans can more easily collapse some nearby Democratic districts.
In Louisiana, the current New Orleans-based 2nd district lost nearly 120,000 black residents over the past decade, largely due to Hurricane Katrina. In order to keep the black population as high as it had been before, the district had to be expanded significantly, reaching to the state capital of Baton Rouge.
As a result, the Baton Rouge- based 6th district, which Democrats held briefly last decade, dropped from 34 per cent black to 24 per cent black. “It keeps those districts a lot safer for those guys,” said Louisiana political analyst John Maginnis.
Hilary Shelton, the Washington bureau director for the National Bureau for the Advancement of Coloured People, says his organisation is prepared to fight the over-packing of majority-black districts and hopes Republicans won’t overplay their hand.
“On one hand, we like to see cohesiveness of those who share common values,” Shelton adds, “but it is important that we don’t end up with the kind of packing in districts” that diminishes the influence of black voters.