The chairman of the Fianna Fail Constituencies Commission, Mr Ray MacSharry, has a problem on his own doorstep. The party faces mounting electoral difficulties in Sligo-Leitrim, which Mr MacSharry represented in the Dail for 20 years before becoming EU commissioner.
Fianna Fail targeted the constituency for a third seat at the last election but failed in the face of a Fine Gael resurgence. Now, with Mr John Ellis embroiled in a business controversy, and the second Fianna Fail TD, Mr Matt Brennan, planning to retire at the next election, the party's target seems even more unattainable.
The two Fine Gael TDs, Mr John Perry and Mr Gerry Reynolds, are formidable politicians who will not be easily dislodged; while Mr Declan Bree, of Labour, will be attempting to regain his seat. ????????????ein's Mr Sean McManus, of Sinn Fein, will also launch a strong challenge after an impressive performance in the local elections when he exceeded the quota on the first count in the Sligo/Strandhill electoral area to take a county council seat. There is much speculation about the intentions of Ms Marian Harkin, who was beaten by Dana Rosemary Scallon for the third seat in Connacht-Ulster in the European elections. Ms Harkin came to national prominence as chairwoman of the lobby group, the Council for the West, and would be an impressive addition to any party ticket. She may, however, decide to run as an Independent.
It is understood informal approaches have been made to Ms Harkin by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, but she has yet to decide.
She said yesterday: "I am considering my future. The support I received in the European election, and the goodwill shown to me by so many people since, gives me good reason to do so."
In the last general election, Fianna Fail's vote fell from its 1992 level of 45.6 per cent to 40.4 per cent. Fine Gael increased its vote by 6.2 percentage points to 36.6 per cent, its highest in 15 years. Mr Perry, from Ballymote, Co Sligo, took the seat vacated by Mr Ted Nealon, while Mr Reynolds, from Ballinamore, Co Leitrim, regained his seat at Mr Bree's expense.
With Mr Ellis based in Fenagh, Co Leitrim, and Mr Brennan in Tubbercurry, Co Sligo, it meant that Sligo town had failed to elect a TD from any party for the first time in 28 years. This is why Ms Harkin would be an ideal general election candidate for Fianna Fail, given the retirement of its Sligo-based TD. She is a mathematics teacher in Sligo town and was active in community work in north Leitrim during the 11 years she lived in Manorhamilton. Another possible Sligo town candidate for Fianna Fail is local doctor and county councillor Mr Jimmy Devins.
Mr Perry has been busy courting the Sligo town vote since his election to the Dail. In a risky political high-wire act in the local elections, he moved from his Ballymote base to the Sligo/Strandhill electoral area and won a county council seat, strengthening his claim to be the town's TD. Local Fianna Fail sources differ on the likely electoral impact of the controversy surrounding Mr Ellis, who resigned in November last year as chairman of the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine because of pressure from Fine Gael over money owed to western farmers after the collapse of his meat company in the late 1980s. Some say that an election soon would put Mr Ellis under pressure to hold his seat, but a contest two years from now, at the end of the natural life of the Government, could be a different matter.
Mr Ellis is relying on Leitrim voters. Last time, he headed the poll, taking 6,380 of the 6,887 Fianna Fail votes in his native county, and it is these people he must impress. He fully intends contesting the next general election and continues to "nurse" the constituency, issuing a statement this week calling for joint action by the Office of Public Works and the ESB to prevent further flooding in Carrick-on-Shannon.