ANALYSIS:Detailed figures on the party's economic growth projections were surprisingly omitted, writes DAN O'BRIEN
PARTY MANIFESTOS are not what they used to be. With so many policy papers published by the parties, the manifestos have become compendiums of summaries of those papers. Fine Gael’s manifesto, launched yesterday, was no exception.
Although repetitive, such documents are useful in bringing together the parties' full panoply of commitments, proposals, aspirations and promises. Fine Gael's Let's Get Ireland Workingmanifesto document did just that.
A common theme was the attachment to one-stop shops. They are promised for businesses dealing with State agencies providing support and advice; for welfare recipients interfacing with the State’s benefits and training agencies; for farmers collecting income support payments; and for students seeking entitlements. Although the one-stop shop term may have been overused, many of the State’s administrative structures could do with this kind of rationalisation.
Fine Gael’s penchant for merging State institutions is also apparent in its proposal for a super-regulator of utilities. It will put under one roof the Competition Authority, the National Consumer Agency and the three bodies charged with regulating communications, energy and broadcasting respectively.
In the sights of this super-regulator, the party believes, should be the large supermarkets who squeeze producers to lower prices but pocket the gains rather than pass them on to consumers.
A surprising omission from the 80-page manifesto was detailed figures on the party’s economic growth projections. Last week, when it launched its fiscal strategy, Fine Gael did not publish the economic forecasts which underpin its budgetary projections. This lack of transparency undermined the credibility of the package, something the Labour Party was quick to latch on to, claiming repeatedly that there is a €5 billion hole in Fine Gael’s figures.
Fine Gael rejects this and makes the counterclaim that Labour has made its own dodgy assumptions (on the seemingly arcane but important difference between real and nominal gross domestic product figures).
The lack of full disclosure by both parties is very unsatisfactory as it makes independent evaluation impossible. In other countries such as the Netherlands an independent fiscal council gives a stamp of approval to the parties’ manifestos.
As it happens, Ireland will have to create such a council under the terms of the EU-IMF bailout. It could be tasked with clearing up such arguments at election time. This would assist voters in deciding which party is most credible on economic management.
On banking matters the two likely coalition partners perplexingly share a preference to sell off AIB, preferably to a large, solid euro zone bank, but want Bank of Ireland to remain in Irish ownership.
Despite all that has happened in banking and despite the very limited influence fragmented shareholders have over large corporations, politicians of all hues seem to find the notion of an “Irish-owned” bank reassuring. Another small, open island economy of similar size – New Zealand – long ago had all its banks taken over by foreign institututions and it has not suffered as a result.
“Measure what can be measured and make measurable what cannot be measured.” Quoting Galileo Galilei on the anniversary of the astronomer’s birth, Taoiseach-in-waiting Enda Kenny was referring to public sector reform at yesterday’s launch.
There was no indication from his party’s manifesto that he was following Galileo’s advice on Ireland’s commercial interests, which by any measure have evolved in recent decades away from agriculture and towards traded services.
In a naked – if predictable – appeal to the agriculture lobby, the manifesto promises to fight for farmers in ongoing world trade negotiations.
No effort is made to measure the gains to Ireland from a deal at the same talks which would liberalise trade in services.
Internationally-traded services are the future for a small island nation. Ireland is among the most successful services exporters. Other small, open economies in Europe make concessions on agriculture at trade talks in order to obtain concessions on services because that is in their (measured) interests.
Fine Gael has no intention of doing that and prefers to stick with a trade policy that is three decades out of date.