Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats are refusing to commit themselves to re-entering government together as they await the outcome of two crucial recounts that could affect the final Dáil arithmetic, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent.
With Fianna Fáil having a clear option of forming a minority single party government with the support of independents, the Progressive Democrat leader Ms Mary Harney yesterday insisted her party had the option of going into opposition.
Both parties said there would be no formal discussions between them until next week at the earliest. As Fianna Fáil figures continued to talk to independent deputies, Ms Harney said she would not enter talks while Fianna Fáil was pursuing other options.
Fianna Fáil figures yesterday continued to highlight the minority government option as both outgoing Coalition parties sought to maximise their negotiating positions by playing down their dependence on each other. However, both Mr Ahern and Ms Harney say a renewed coalition is their "preferred option".
The Government Chief Whip Mr Séamus Brennan repeated yesterday that the Taoiseach's preferred option was another coalition with the PDs. "He wants a strong Government because there are tough decisions ahead," said Mr Brennan, who will be a key negotiator of any programme for government.
However, other party sources said an alternative involving independents was "taking shape" and would be very tempting for some in Fianna Fáil.
Senior Fianna Fáil figures have already held discussions with several independents and believe they can win commitments of support from four of them - or five if Ms Mildred Fox is elected after the Wicklow recount tomorrow.
Party sources also said yesterday they were likely to hold discussions with the Green Party. A Green Party spokesman said they were "expecting a phone call" but would not decide on their attitude until after the new enlarged parliamentary party meets tomorrow.
If Fianna Fáil win the Cork South Central seat they would have 81 Dáil deputies, just three short of a majority. However, they believe they can command up to 86 Dáil votes with the committed support of former Fianna Fáil independents Mr James Breen (Clare) and Mr Paddy McHugh (Galway East) as well as the backing of Mr Jackie Healy Rae (Kerry South), Mr Niall Blaney (Donegal North East) and Ms Mildred Fox, if she is elected.
Believing Fianna Fáil to be using the independents option to temper PD demands for Ministerial and policy concessions, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, maintained yesterday that there were "mixed feelings" in her party on whether to go back into government or stay in opposition.
She maintained that some of the party's eight deputies "have taken the view that maybe we should stay in opposition because they have seen huge changes in the political landscape and huge opportunities for a party like the Progressive Democrats."
Should talks between the parties commence, they will be based on the parties' election manifestos. There are differences between them on the scale of privatisation, the level of commitment to tax cuts and the national stadium.
The PDs are likely to seek two Cabinet ministries, and should there be agreement on this, there would be strong Fianna Fáil opposition to giving them any more than one junior ministry.
Meanwhile, the depleted Fine Gael parliamentary party will meet on Friday to discuss how and when to choose a new leader to replace Mr Michael Noonan. Senator Maurice Manning yesterday warned against "hastily taken decisions which may do long term damage" amid suggestions that the party should not take a decision at least until after the Seanad elections in July.
The recount in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency concluded last night with Seymour Crawford (FG) defeating his running mate Andrew Boylan to hold the seat.
FG emerges, blinking, from the trenches: page 6; Ahern takes his time on handing out the jobs: page 7