Fianna Fáil, rattled by low ratings in the opinion polls, may be tempted toencourage a number of Independent TDs back into the fold, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is the embodiment of sweetness and light to five TDs sitting on the Independent benches in the Dáil. They were all once closely associated with his own party and he would welcome them back, as much to boost Fianna Fáil's profile with the electorate as to secure his majority Government.
The five are Mr Jackie Healy-Rae, Kerry South, Mr Niall Blaney, Donegal North East, Ms Mildred Fox, Wicklow, Mr James Breen, Clare, and Mr Paddy McHugh, Galway East.
Their return to the party would hold out the tantalising possibility of an extra five seats at the next general election, although that would be unlikely, but there would be a strong possibility of gains in Kerry South, Clare and Galway East, in particular.
While the five publicly remain adamant that they are happy as Independents, there is no doubt that they would be prepared to consider Fianna Fáil overtures. If the party's fortunes continue to decline, Mr Ahern may be prompted to extend soon the hand of friendship
Fianna Fáil is increasingly apprehensive about the possible fallout from next year's local and European elections. Voter anger could see the electorate using them as an opportunity to punish the Government.
Such is the level of apprehension that some high-profile ministers of state are having second thoughts about running for Europe, fearful that they might be the scapegoats for an angry electorate.
Against this background, the return to Fianna Fáil of one-time party stalwarts would be a powerful boost. There would, inevitably in some cases, be constituency difficulties.
Those who kept the Fianna Fáil faith and aspire to Dáil nominations, would be annoyed. On the other hand, some of the Independents might feel that the best way of assuring their political survival would be by retaining their independent status. However, the independent benches, long term, can be a frustrating place, unless the government of the day is relying on the TD in question for its survival.
Mr Ahern, a clever political strategist, has been careful to close no doors with the Independents who kept his minority government in power in the last Dáil.
An official from his office has been assigned to maintain contact with Mr Healy-Rae, Mr Blaney, son of Mr Harry Blaney who retired at the last election and Ms Fox. Mr Ahern told the Dáil before the summer recess that the official "meets the deputies on a regular basis and arranges to keep them briefed on issues as they arise". They would likely be Mr Ahern's first targets if he made overtures to the Independents.
Jackie Healy-Rae
Kerry South (3 seats)
Mr Healy-Rae was a shrewd and formidable FF grassroots politician until he jumped ship to run successfully as an Independent in 1997. He had worked with the late Neil Blaney, father of Harry and uncle of the current TD, in by elections in the 1960s. He was the party's director of elections in Kerry South on a number of occasions.
Despite his high profile in the last Dáil, he narrowly held his seat by just 203 votes in the general election. Mr Tom Fleming, running mate of the other FF TD, the Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism, Mr O'Donoghue, had come close to creating a sensation. The third seat in the constituency is held by Labour's Ms Breeda Moynihan Cronin.
Fine Gael has not held a seat in the constituency since 1989 and will, no doubt, launch a strong challenge next time. However, the indications are that the second Fianna Fáil seat is there for the taking. Mr Fleming may well want to run again, but with Mr Healy-Rae retiring there is speculation that his son, Mr Michael Healy-Rae, a county councillor, could feature on the FF ticket as the Healy-Raes return to the party fold.
Despite his differences with the party, Mr Healy-Rae has remained on good terms with the Taoiseach.
Niall Blaney
Donegal North East (3 seats)
Mr Blaney took his father's seat, the last of the three TDs to be elected. Fianna Fáil's Dr Jim McDaid, who topped the poll with 9,614 first preferences and Ms Cecilia Keaveney, took the first two seats. At the end of six counts, Mr Blaney had 1,357 votes to spare over Fine Gael's Mr Seán Maloney.
Next time, Fine Gael is expected to launch a strong challenge for a seat, with the front-runner, Mr Joe McHugh, who was elected to the Seanad. Mr McHugh may be Senator Jim Higgins's running mate in the European elections in Connacht-Ulster, providing him with an opportunity to raise his profile.
The Blaney split with Fianna Fáil came after the 1970 arms crisis, when Neil Blaney was sacked from the Cabinet by Jack Lynch. Feelings ran deep for years afterwards and moves to have Neil Blaney rejoin the party under Charles Haughey in the 1980s came to nothing. However, the current TD would have little of that political baggage and is reported to be favourably disposed towards the party which his grandfather, father and uncle served for decades.
With Dr McDaid and Ms Keaveney strong performers, the inclusion of Mr Blaney on the ticket would hold out the prospect of the party taking the three seats. It would be an uphill struggle.
Even in the height of the Blaney dominance of politics in Donegal North East, the party took two seats, with Fine Gael's long-serving TD, Mr Paddy Harte, taking the third. However, the inclusion of Mr Blaney on the ticket would strengthen Fianna Fáil, particularly if Dr McDaid took a seat in the European elections. There is speculation that he may be one of the FF candidates in Connacht-Ulster.
Mildred Fox
Wicklow (5 seats)
Ms Fox is the daughter of the late Johnny Fox, who was elected as an Independent in 1992, having previously been a Fianna Fáil councillor. She was first elected to the Dáil in a by-election in June 1995 caused by his death.
She held on to her seat by just 19 votes, ahead of Labour's Mr Nicky Kelly, after a recount the last time. Mr Kelly, an Arklow-based councillor, is expected to challenge again for a seat the next time.
The other seats are held by Fianna Fáil's Mr Dick Roche, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Mr Joe Jacob, both strong electoral performers. Mr Billy Timmins did well to hold his Fine Gael seat, despite the party's meltdown in the last election and will not be easily moved.
Fianna Fáil strategists usually target for three seats in a five-seater, but will recognise Mr Kelly, who outpolled Ms Fox in first preferences the last time, as a formidable obstacle to that ambition. Ms Fox may see her days as an Independent numbered and might welcome a return to her late father's one-time political home.
James Breen
Clare (4 seats)
Last time, Fianna Fáil was confident that it could repeat its 1997 achievement of winning three of the four seats. However, Mr Breen, a FF county councillor, ran as an Independent, having failed to get a nomination, topped the poll and won the first seat on the second count.
Ms Síle de Valera, currently Minister of State for Education and Science, and Mr Tony Killeen, held the FF seats, while Mr Pat Breen took the Fine Gael seat.
Mr James Breen's return to the fold would seem to guarantee a third seat. However, Senator Timmy Dooley, a rising electoral star in Fianna Fáil and, perhaps, Senator Brendan Daly, may also seek nominations from the party.
Paddy McHugh
Galway East (4 seats)
This was a similar story to Clare. Mr McHugh, a Fianna Fáil councillor, failed to get a nomination and won a seat as an Independent. Fianna Fáil's plans to win three out of the four came unstuck.
Mr McHugh won his seat at the expense of Fine Gael's Mr Ulick Burke, who was subsequently elected to the Seanad and intends contesting the next general election.
Outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Mr Michael Kitt lost out to party colleague, Mr Joe Callanan and Mr Kitt is expected to attempt to regain his Dáil seat next time.
Mr Paul Connaughton holds the Fine Gael seat.
Mr Burke's challenge will be a strong one, but much will depend on the state of Fine Gael's fortunes the next time.
Mr McHugh would be a strong addition to Fianna Fáil and he may well wish to have the opportunity to fulfil his ambition to win a seat on the party ticket.