Voters could jolt the Government in mid-term, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter.
On paper, Fianna Fáil should win the Meath by-election caused by the departure of former Fine Gael leader Mr John Bruton to be EU ambassador to Washington.
The party holds three of the five seats - the Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources, Mr Dempsey, Ms Mary Wallace and Mr Johnny Brady. Its vote in the 2002 general election was up three points on 1997, with the party securing 2.7 quotas.
Fianna Fáil's by-election candidate is Navan-based newsagent Mr Tommy Reilly, the chairman of Meath County Council. He topped the poll in the 1999 and 2004 local elections in the Navan electoral area. He reached the quota on the first count at the selection convention.
With a powerful Fianna Fáil presence in the constituency and the backing of the party's Cabinet members, Mr Reilly starts as favourite.
However, the outcome of the election, for which no date has been set, is far from being a foregone conclusion. Electorates are notorious for giving a mid-term by-election jolt to governments.
Many commuters who live in Meath have no traditional local loyalties. The other candidates will argue strongly that Fianna Fáil should not be given four out of the five seats in Meath.
Mr Reilly will come under strong pressure from a resurgent Fine Gael and a Sinn Féin candidate who polled impressively in the last two general elections.
Transfers are likely to decide the final outcome and Mr Reilly concedes that he will need them.
He says the provision of a rail line from Dublin to Navan is the major by-election issue. "It is top of my agenda," he says. "I think it can be achieved within a decade, improving the quality of life for commuters."
He is firmly backing his Fianna Fáil Dáil colleagues in supporting the proposed M3 motorway, despite claims from those opposed to it that it will damage the Hill of Tara's archaeological heritage.
"I live in the shadow of the Hill of Tara. I was born and reared there," Mr Reilly adds. "The proposed road is 1.5 km away from the Hill of Tara, further than the existing road."
Fine Gael is fielding Nobber-based publican Mr Shane McEntee, a member of a well-known Meath family. His brother, Mr Gerry McEntee, was captain of the Meath football team in the early 1990s.
Meath was only one of two constituencies to return two Fine Gael TDs in the last general election as the party's fortunes declined dramatically. Mr Bruton saw his vote decline, but the party retained its two seats with 1.6 quotas. There was a change in personnel, with Mr Damien English replacing Mr John Farrelly as the party's second TD.
The Sinn Féin candidate is Navan-based county councillor Mr Joe Reilly, who polled 6,042 first preferences in the general election, increasing the party's vote by six points to 9.43 per cent.
Mr McEntee believes the by- election will be strongly fought.
"From a political point of view, I do not believe that voters will want four TDs from the same party representing the county."
Mr Reilly says corrupt politicians, officials, land speculators and property developers have profited from the misery of others and counties such as Meath were now coping with the fallout.
"Every young couple in Co Dublin who moved to Meath because they could not afford to live in their area, in their own county, are victims of the greed and corruption of some politicians."
He has called for the immediate construction of by-passes for Dunshaughlin, Navan and Kells and has urged the Minister for the Environment, Mr Roche, "to abandon plans to drive a motorway through the Skyrne/ Tara valley domain".
Meath was once a Labour stronghold, with the late Jimmy Tully a powerful presence in the party locally and nationally. More recently, Mr Brian Fitzgerald had a Dáil seat for Labour, before resigning from the party because of the amalgamation with Democratic Left.
This time, Labour is fielding Mr Dominic Hannigan, who was an Independent councillor for the Slane electoral area before joining the party.
"Under every heading," he says, "the Government, which is trying to take four seats out of five in Meath, has failed the people".
The Green Party candidate is Mr Fergal O'Byrne, who works in the public sector, specialising in quality management systems in the construction and service industries.
He contested the general election, securing 3.6 per cent of the vote, and stood as a candidate in Navan in the local elections.