In the Fianna Fail pantheon presided over by Bertie Ahern, resignation and retirement seem to be the only paths leading to a fall from grace. A poor performance or political invisibility doesn't warrant replacement.
Breaking into the elite circle of senior and junior ministers is the trick; staying there is a doddle. Because of that, yesterday's announcements didn't involve a seismic shift. But it could be rated as a departure in style. And style is something Mr Ahern has begun to pay attention to as he becomes more comfortable with the reality of political power. On Wednesday he endorsed the building of a €281 million national stadium for Dublin. A grand public gesture, straight out of the textbook of a French president. Not on the scale of the Temple Bar/Financial Services schemes of his former mentor; but it put the revamped Government Buildings in the shade. And it showed the Farmleigh purchase wasn't a once-off.
A gesture like that is a hard act to follow. Mr Ahern had no intention of trying. He confirmed most of what had already been printed about senior Cabinet appointments. Brian Cowen was to take over from a retiring David Andrews at Foreign Affairs; Micheal Martin was to succeed Mr Cowen at Health and Children; Michael Woods was to replace Mr Martin at Education; and Frank Fahey would take over from Dr Woods at Marine and Natural Resources.
The only surprise lay in the ability of Mr Ahern to promote two backbenchers, instead of one, because of the decision by Chris Flood to resign his junior ministry on health grounds. So, in came Eoin Ryan of Dublin South East to replace Mr Flood at Tourism, Sport and Recreation, with responsibility for local development and drugs strategy. Mary Hanafin of Dun Laoghaire succeeded Mr Fahey with various responsibilities at Health, Justice and Education.
There were disappointed people around. None more so than Seamus Brennan. Mr Ahern sought to publicly salve the wounds of the chief whip by telling the Dail his job was so indispensable to the good running and functioning of the Coalition Government that he couldn't be spared for a top Cabinet position.
The statement brought howls of derision from the Opposition benches. At that stage, the iron must surely have entered Mr Brennan's soul. But that's politics. And, in the pattern of Mr Ahern's promotions, a fall invariably comes before a rise.
Look at the appointment of Ireland's new EU Commissioner, David Byrne. First Maire Geoghegan-Quinn and then Brian Cowen were the hot favourites to get that job. Both were disappointed. But Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn was almost immediately awarded a plum job at the European Court of Auditors in compensation. And now Mr Cowen escapes from Health into Foreign Affairs.
Mr Martin's appointment to Health is something of a poisoned chalice, as it was for Mr Cowen. Both are viewed as bright and able; possible successors to Mr Ahern. A few years in Health, with its attendant waiting lists, vested interests, bed shortages and industrial disputes can remove the gloss from any public image. That said, the Department also needs real political ability.
Michael Woods's promotion to Education can only be on the basis of experience and the notion of "a safe pair of hands". His performance at the Department of the Marine was as supine as that of Mr Andrews before him, who described the portfolio as being responsible for "fish and ships".
Frank Fahey gets a chance to do something positive in a Department that has only been ticking over. His promotion is interesting. Ability aside, it may represent a delayed reward for ensuring that Maire Geoghegan-Quinn - a determined leadership challenger to Mr Ahern - resigned from politics in Galway West, rather than contest a general election she was likely to lose in 1997.
A babushka style of thinking pervades some of the promotions. On one level, Eoin Ryan is a deserving, hard-working member of the party. On another, he shares a constituency with Ruairi Quinn and needs extra clout. The reported intention of Michael McDowell, the Attorney General, to contest the next election there may have been a clinching factor behind his promotion. Since when did Fianna Fail make way for the Progressive Democrats?
If there are wheels within wheels in Dublin South East, Dun Laoghaire is even more complicated. David Andrews has made no secret of the desire to have his son, Barry, replace him in the Dail at the next election. But the promotion of Mary Hanafin, one of the brightest young TDs, will make that prospect a little bit more difficult. It will, however, give her ammunition to resist the ambitions of Helen Keogh of the Progressive Democrats and Niamh Bhreathneach of the Labour Party and make it easier for the party to return two seats.
Given the renewed pressure on the Coalition to hold a referendum on abortion, promoting Des Hanafin's daughter as a junior minister may provide some invaluable insurance, especially if the Taoiseach decides to take a joint legislation/referendum route, following consideration by the Oireachtas Committee on the Constitution headed by Brian Lenihan. Given the innate caution of the Taoiseach, few expected the reshuffle to be extensive. Basically, it involved some internal Fianna Fail housekeeping. For the future, the careers of Seamus Brennan and Brian Lenihan will bear watching.