Fas predicts shortage of doctors and nurses

Fás has predicted staff shortages in several areas of healthcare in the Republic over the next 10 years if no action is taken…

Fás has predicted staff shortages in several areas of healthcare in the Republic over the next 10 years if no action is taken.

It believes there will be shortages of doctors, nurses, radiographers, dietitians, dentists, physiotherapists, social workers and psychologists.

In some cases it says the State needs to take action on increasing supply immediately by providing more training places while at the same time addressing retention problems.

The Healthcare Skills Monitoring Report produced by the skills and labour market research unit within FÁS estimates the numbers of professionals which will be needed in each area by 2015 by examining the numbers trained each year, the numbers of immigrants likely to be attracted to work here, the likely increase in population and the need to improve services currently regarded as inadequate.

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Looking at the situation in relation to doctors, it predicts some 3,643 GPs will be required by 2015. However, 1,000 fewer than this are likely to be available. The report says it has factored into its calculation the plan to increase to 150 the number of GPs trained every year. It says the fact that 70 per cent of GPs in training are women could have implications for the future in terms of supply.

The report predicts the domestic supply of hospital doctors will rise to 6,719 by 2015 but estimates that 7,212 will be required, creating a shortfall of 493. It says more interns should be trained in the Republic, notwithstanding the fact that foreign doctors will continue to supplement supplies. It also says Irish doctors working abroad should be enticed back. In relation to dentists, the report says their number needs to be increased urgently through both the education system and in the short term through immigration. It says there is already a shortage of dentists in the State.

The report estimates 2,782 dentists will be required in a decade based on population growth and other factors. This, it suggests, would be 696 fewer than the State can supply by 2015.

It says recently announced plans to provide a direct entry children's nursing degree programme from next year should help with predicted shortages of these professionals but says the service also needs to look at why a large number of registered children's nurses are not working as children's nurses.

It predicts the shortage of children's nurses by 2015 could reach 599. The report also says that despite a recent increase in training places for radiographers the overall supply is set to fall due to the "relatively high attrition rate experienced by the profession".

It estimates 1,621 radiographers will be required by 2015, some 654 more than the supply.

It also calls for an increase in the number of training places for radiation therapists, predicting a shortfall of 71 by 2015.

There will also be "a large gap" between the supply and demand for general nurses by 2015 unless certain changes are made, the report says. The shortage of general nurses, it predicts, could be 5,487. There are already over 1,000 nursing vacancies across the State covered by overtime and agency staff.

It also predicts the State will be short 394 physiotherapists and 753 social workers in 10 years' time.