Analysis: Some political experts in the US believe the almost certain election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as California governor is a good sign for next year's presidential election in which President George W Bush looks vulnerable. However, others believe he may be a liability to Republicans.
As politicians and pundits digested Arnold Schwarzenegger's stunning victory in California, some saw the vote as a major boost to President Bush but others doubted whether the result had national implications.
"I don't think it has national reach. Schwarzenegger had publicity, had money, he had poise and most importantly he was not Gray Davis. But California is still a Democratic state and I don't see that changing just because people are mad at Gray Davis," said Steven Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington.
"We're always groping for a hero in a morass and California is in a deep morass right now," he said.
But former presidential aide David Gergen, who has worked for both Republican and Democratic administrations disagreed.
"That's going to help them enormously in preparing them for 2004, and California will now be in play, where it wasn't seen to be in play recently," he said.
"That means the Democrats, for example, will have to spend money to defend California. They'll still be favored, or at least they should be. But that makes it a tougher race for the Democrats nationally."
Democrats have carried California, the largest state in the US, in the past three presidential elections and their presidential nominee will have to win the state's 54 Electoral College votes again next year to have any chance of ousting Bush. Without those votes, it would be virtually impossible for the Democrats to win.
St Louis University political scientist Joel Goldstein said Schwarzenegger's victory was bound to play out on the national stage. But it was too early to know exactly how.
"There are risks for the Republicans in this result. If Schwarzenegger can't deal with the fiscal problems he inherits, that may end up hurting them rather than helping," he said.
"If more allegations about his sexual behavior come out, that will become the story. Sex has a way of sticking, as we saw with former President (Bill) Clinton. The Republicans will also have to address the fact that Schwarzenegger is so out of step with the prevailing conservative sentiment in the party," said Goldstein.
Schwarzenegger has stated his support for abortion rights and equal treatment for homosexuals - both issues at which he is at odds with the national Republican leadership.
Gary Jacobson, a political scientist with the University of California, San Diego said Schwarzenegger might have a better chance of dealing with the budget crisis than Gray Davis, but only if he was brave enough to raise taxes. If not, he would be forced to cut spending on health and education, making him equally unpopular.
"It won't help Bush in 2004 and it may even hurt him a bit because he'll have a Republican presiding over California's budget mess," he said.
Most of all, the result showed deep anger among voters at the state of the economy. If conditions do not improve and if the economy does not begin to generate new jobs in sufficient numbers, that anger might be directed against Bush and the Republicans, who control both houses of Congress as well as the White House.
Doug Schoen, a Democratic strategist and former pollster for Clinton, said: "Elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent. At the end of the day, I think people said, no matter whatever doubts we have about Arnold, we want a change in politics.
"I think this was more a vote against Davis than a vote on the basis of what Arnold Schwarzenegger stood for. I'm not sure that most people know," he said.