Voter MoodFour years later and US voters are more deeply split, write David S. Broder and Richard Morin
The hard-fought 2004 fight for the presidency reflected both deep-seated social divisions in the United States and the polarising effects of Iraq, the economy and the war on terrorism.
The basic alignments of the electorate echoed those of 2000, according to exit polls taken on Tuesday. Men, whites, rural residents and the religiously observant were backing Mr Bush, while women, minorities, urban dwellers and the less religious were going for Mr Kerry. Among Mr Kerry's successes was an apparent breakthrough among young voters.
The final geographic battlegrounds were those that the rivals had targeted for their most intensive campaigning and organisational efforts. Florida was closely contested but in the end went to Mr Bush by a margin large enough to withstand the kind of legal challenge that occurred in 2000.
Mr Kerry then racked up New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and the tourist haven of Hawaii. Still left to tip the balance as of early yesterday morning were Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa in the midwest, and New Mexico in the west.
With Mr Bush running as an incumbent who had triggered and endured four years of political battles, and with Ralph Nader less of a factor than he had been in 2000, the ideological alignments were more evident than four years ago.
About eight in 10 self-described conservatives supported Mr Bush, while an even higher proportion of liberals backed Mr Kerry. In 2000, 6 per cent of the liberals supported Mr Nader, which cost the Democratic nominee, vice president Al Gore, critical votes - and perhaps some states.
A pronounced shift came among moderates. In this polarised political climate, their share of the electorate dropped from about 50 per cent in 2000 to about 45 per cent this year, but the margin for the Democratic nominee increased from eight percentage points then to about 15 points now. Political independents also moved to the Democrats, with Mr Kerry winning a slight majority whereas Mr Gore had lost by a similarly small margin, according to surveys.
But as Mr Bush battled to repeat his first-term wins in Ohio and other closely contested states, it became clear that Mr Kerry might not profit enough from the massive organisational drive his party and its allies mounted.
In 2000, no national issue - foreign or domestic - had the power to shift large numbers of votes. Two-thirds of those who voted said the country was heading in the right direction, and no issue was mentioned by as many as 20 per cent of the voters.
The biggest personal factor in the election was the disapproval of departing president Bill Clinton as a person, voiced by six out of 10 voters, and they voted for Mr Bush by better than 2 to 1.
This year, Mr Clinton ceased being a drag on the Democratic ticket, as reflected in Mr Kerry's decision to invite him to campaign this past week in several battleground states. But more voters said the country was seriously off on the wrong track than moving in the right direction. Iraq, terrorism, moral values and the economy - all were of concern to voters, tugging them in different directions.
One voter in five said moral values were the most important issue driving the vote, and almost eight out of 10 backed Mr Bush. Terrorism was almost as high in importance, and 85 per cent of voters citing it also supported the President. Mr Kerry found his strongest support - more than 80 per cent - among those who named the economy, jobs and the war in Iraq as their most important concerns.
The decision to invade Iraq split the electorate almost evenly, according to the polling, though more think it is going badly than well. Those who opposed the war and those who think it is failing went four to one for Mr Kerry. Supporters of the Iraq policy and optimists backed Mr Bush by equally lopsided ratios.
The issue agenda varied by state. In Ohio, the economy and jobs topped the list, named by almost twice as many voters as those who singled out Iraq. But in New Hampshire, the reverse was true. And in Florida, terrorism topped both Iraq and the economy.
These issue splits were overlaid on a foundation of an electoral map displaying the deep social divisions in the country. Despite some pre-election polls suggesting that Mr Bush might double his share of the African-American vote, nine out of 10 of those votes were going once again to the Democratic nominee, polls showed.
The number of blacks turning out appears to have been higher this year. If the exit poll for Pennsylvania is an accurate indication, African Americans made up about 13 per cent of the electorate; almost double their share in 2000. Democrats had mounted a massive registration drive in Philadelphia, only to see it partially offset by an increased Republican vote in mid-state rural counties.
Mr Kerry was also winning a clear majority of Latino voters, claiming more than half their votes and beating Mr Bush by 15 percentage points, surveys showed.
White voters favoured Mr Bush by about 54 per cent to 44 per cent, similar to his 2000 share. The exit poll indicated that about 22 per cent of Tuesday's voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians.
The gender gap persisted this year but shrank a little. Mr Bush was leading by about five percentage points among men, down from 11 points in 2000, while among women Mr Kerry held about a nine-point advantage, two points less than Mr Gore enjoyed four years ago.
In some key states, the gender gap closed almost entirely. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, a majority of men voted for Mr Kerry. Mr Bush also lost ground among men in Florida but still held the lead. In all three states, Mr Kerry led among women.
Despite a video message from Osama bin Laden that raised fears among Democrats of a swing towards Mr Bush, the headlines about kidnappings, slayings and bloodshed in Iraq seemed to have had a stronger effect in the other direction.
Another notable feature was the Kerry edge among voters younger than 30. Their ranks grew as much as those of older voters, who usually are much more reliable in showing up at the polls. And those between 18 and 29 - one-sixth of the electorate - were going for Mr Kerry by 13 points.