Exit polls give Romanian president a narrow lead

ROMANIAN PRESIDENT Traian Basescu held a narrow election lead over challenger Mircea Geoana last night, according to exit polls from a ballot that will go to a December 6th run-off.

Two polls gave Mr Basescu, an ally of the centre-right Democratic Liberals, 33-34 per cent, with Social Democrat (PSD) candidate Mr Geoana just behind on 31-32 per cent. Full results are expected today.

The election campaign was a bitter affair, in which both main candidates faced accusations of involvement in lurid corruption scandals.

The eventual winner of the election will have to deal with a Romanian political scene that is starkly divided, and an economy that needs massive reform and is mired in a deep recession. Mr Basescu casts himself as a plain-talking man of the people, but he has alienated many politicians with a style critics call autocratic.

Mr Geoana is a less abrasive but duller figure, more conciliatory with colleagues but less openly committed to fighting graft.

“He is a very strong character. Not everybody tolerates that,” Laura Stefan of the Romanian Academic Society said of Mr Basescu, a former sea captain. “But his attitude towards justice reforms is of crucial importance. He defended these ideas when no one else would.”

The PSD pulled out of their coalition with the Democratic Liberals in October, after a PSD minister accused Mr Basescu’s supporters of planning to rig yesterday’s vote.

The collapse of the alliance paralysed political decision-making in Romania, left its government in limbo and prompted the International Monetary Fund to postpone a review that should have led to payment of the latest tranche of a €20 billion emergency loan.

The aid deal requires Romania to make dramatic cuts in state spending, necessitating major redundancies in its bloated public sector and bureaucracy.

The measures are deeply unpopular in Romania, and have prompted strikes and street protests from workers who fear they will lose their jobs and who are angry with politicians who are widely perceived to be both incompetent and corrupt.

The loan is vital to stabilise Romania’s economy and help it to fund social programmes at a time when tax revenues and investment are dropping after several years of booming, debt-driven growth.

Mr Basescu and the Democratic Liberals are seen generally as more intent on pushing through anti-corruption measures stipulated by the EU, and the painful cutbacks demanded by the IMF. Mr Geoana is more ambivalent towards cost-cutting reforms, and his PSD allies acquired a reputation for sleaze from 1989-2004, when they dominated post-communist Romania’s politics.

“There’s a great deal of tension from the investors’ side as to what it means for the government, and further what it means for the budget,” said Jon Levy from the Eurasia Group think tank. “Should . . . Geoana win the presidency, expectations of a PSD-dominated government will increase, suggesting a more tempestuous relationship with the IMF and EU.”

The next president will have to nominate a new prime minister, who will then seek to have a new cabinet approved by parliament. But the opposition has already rejected two of Mr Basescu’s nominations, and this deadlock could continue if he won a second term as head of state.

“I can’t really support any of the candidates because I can’t see any of them solving our problems,” said George Mihailache, a retired schoolteacher voting with his wife in Bucharest.

“I think Geoana has the best chance of forming a government, so that’s who we’ll vote for. Even a bad government is probably better than no government.”