The economic outlook for the United States and Japan weakened slightly in October, but prospects for the euro zone improved slightly, according to an early warning indicator issued by OECD today.
The leading index, which summarises information contained in several short-term indicators known to be linked to gross domestic product, fell to 103.3 for the OECD as a whole in October after 103.4 in September.
The indicator issued by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed performance weakened in the United States, Canada, Japan and Germany in October, while prospects brightened in Italy and Britain.
"Slowing expansion lies ahead in the OECD area according to the latest composite leading indicators (CLIs)," the Paris-based group of 30 industrialised countries said in a statement.
The OECD highlighted that a measure which signals change in the pace of growth - the so-called six-month rate of change - was down for the ninth month in a row for the entire OECD area, following an upward trend that began in April 2003.
The United States saw its leading indicator, a forward-looking index, dip to 102.4 in October after 102.5 in September. Its six-month rate of change fell sharply to 0.2 from 1.3, decreasing for the tenth month in a row.
The euro zone's leading indicator rose slightly to 106.3 in October from 106.1 the month before. But the OECD said the zone's rate of change dipped to 2.4 from 2.6, having shown a downwards trend since December 2003.
"October data showed continued weakening performance in the CLI's six-month rate of change for the United States, Canada, Japan and Germany," the OECD said.
"However, some evidence of improved performance was shown for Italy and the United Kingdom," it said.
Britain's six-month rate rose to 1.1 in October from 0.5 the month before. Its CLI improved to 101.7 from 101.2. In Italy, the leading indicator rose to 98.9 in October from 98.4, and the rate of change increased to 0.4 from -0.7.
Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, saw its leading indicator dip to 108.4 from 108.5 in September, while France's leading indicator was stable at 107.0. Japan's leading indicator fell to 97.4 in October from 97.7. The country's rate of change deteriorated to -1.5 from -0.8.