View from Brussels: Tony Blair will be unable to advance Britain's relations with the EU. Denis Staunton reports from Brussels
When Tony Blair arrived at an EU summit in Gothenburg after his 2001 election victory, he was greeted as a returning hero, a leader who had proved his political potency by winning a second endorsement from voters.
There were high hopes that, in his second term, Mr Blair would at last fulfil his promise to win a leading role for Britain in Europe.
Yesterday's congratulations from his fellow EU leaders were no doubt sincere, but few now expect Mr Blair to achieve anything significant in the European political arena during his remaining time as prime minister.
During the election campaign, Mr Blair revealed that he has all but given up on his long-held ambition to lead Britain into the euro. When opinion polls in France last month pointed to a No vote on May 29th, Mr Blair suggested that he might ditch Britain's planned referendum on the EU constitution if the French rejected it.
Once hailed as the most pro-European British prime minister since Ted Heath, Mr Blair no longer attempts to conceal his dislike of EU business, scuttling home from summits as early as possible and avoiding any opportunity to be photographed in Brussels.
His relationships with Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder have been irretrievably damaged by the dispute over the Iraq war; his Spanish ally, Jose Maria Aznar, is gone and forgotten; and his Italian friend, Silvio Berlusconi, could be out of office by the end of this year.
Mr Blair can claim some successes in Europe, however, notably the preservation of Britain's "red lines" in negotiations towards the EU constitution and the appointment of his favourite, Jose Manuel Barroso, as Commission President.
British politicians like to boast that Britain is "winning the argument" in Europe, with many of the new member states favouring the Anglo-Saxon economic model over the western European social model.
In fact, the new member states are quite diverse in their political outlook, particularly in their attitudes towards European integration. Some central and eastern European countries are showing signs of cooling ardour in their devotion to the United States as, one by one, they withdraw their soldiers from Iraq.
Mr Blair will be in the European spotlight for the final six months of this year, when Britain occupies the EU presidency.
The British presidency could be a slimmed-down operation, with only one meeting of EU leaders rather than the usual two and meetings of other ministers only if absolutely necessary.
If, as is universally expected, next month's summit in Brussels fails to agree on the EU's next seven-year budget plan, Britain will take over the negotiations in July. Few believe that much progress would be made on the budget during a British presidency, not least on account of Britain's determination to cling to its budget rebate, which most other member states regard as unfair and unjustified.
If a French No vote does not derail the process of ratifying the EU constitution, Britain must hold a referendum next year. A handful of optimists believe voters could be persuaded to back the constitution if they are told that voting No could mean having to leave the EU.
The personal attacks Mr Blair faced during the election campaign, many of which focused on trust, suggest that the prime minister may not be best placed to sell the constitution to the British people.
The talk in Brussels has already moved on from Mr Blair to his likely successor, Gordon Brown, a familiar if unloved figure in the European capital. Unlike Mr Blair, who speaks French well and takes holidays in Europe, Mr Brown has never displayed any curiosity about European culture beyond the island of his birth.
Mr Brown shows as little enthusiasm for the European political project, although some of his colleagues suspect that his grudging attitude to the EU could be a pose aimed at securing the support of the Daily Mail and newspapers owned by Rupert Murdoch. Mr Brown's reputation as a mild Eurosceptic could even prove useful if it falls to him to lead the Yes campaign in Britain's referendum on the EU constitution.
The chancellor is untainted, in many European eyes, with a close association with the decision to invade Iraq and is thus well placed to make a fresh start with France and Germany.