THE EU: European Union foreign ministers arrive in Tullamore today for two days of talks that will be overshadowed by this week's dramatic change of United States policy towards Israel.
The ministers will seek to avoid any direct confrontation with Washington but many EU governments believe that the assurances President Bush gave to the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, are inconsistent with the road map for peace in the Middle East that was endorsed by a quartet made up of the EU, the US, the UN and Russia.
In an EU presidency statement on Wednesday night, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, welcomed "President Bush's reaffirmation of the United States' commitment to the road map and a two-state solution including a viable, contiguous, sovereign, and independent Palestinian state".
Diplomats in some European capitals warn, however, that Mr Bush's assertion that "it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949" appears to prejudge the outcome of those negotiations.
"The European Union will not recognise any change to the pre-1967 borders other than those arrived at by agreement between the parties," Mr Cowen said.
All sides agree privately that, after any final settlement, Palestinian refugees are likely to be repatriated to a Palestinian state rather than to Israel. Many of the ministers arriving in Tullamore today, however, consider that Mr Bush's declaration to that effect at this stage can only make such an outcome more difficult to achieve.
Some Europeans fear that Mr Bush's statement that, following Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip "existing arrangements regarding control of airspace, territorial waters, and land passages of the West Bank and Gaza will continue" amounts to a licence for Israel to replace the occupation with a blockade, if it chooses.
The ministers are unlikely to make a joint statement on the Middle East following this weekend's meeting and the Irish presidency will seek to rally support around the core policies on which all EU governments agree. These include a commitment to the road map, with a two-state solution negotiated by both parties.
All EU governments agree that Washington's support is essential to any realistic peace plan for the Middle East but some this weekend are likely to question the purpose of the EU's further participation in the quartet following Mr Bush's unilateral initiative this week.
During their stay in Tullamore, the ministers will also discuss the deteriorating security situation in Iraq. EU governments are reluctant to commit Europe to a defined role in rebuilding Iraq until it becomes clear what role the UN will play following a handover of power to Iraqis on June 30th. The Commission President, Mr Romano Prodi, this week described the situation in Iraq as "the worst possible" and warned that international help could become more difficult.
"This solution is also becoming more and more difficult - many solutions that were possible immediately after the war are now complicated," he said.
The ministers will consider the situation in Kosovo after violence between ethnic Albanians and Serbs last month killed 19 people. The EU has until now insisted that Kosovo should remain a province of Serbia but some observers are calling for more EU action to bolster the political process in the Balkans.
When their informal meeting in Tullamore ends at lunchtime tomorrow, the ministers will move to the K Club in Kildare for an EU-Asia ministerial meeting, at which the EU is expected to face criticism for excluding Burma on account of its human rights record.
