For the first time since the 1989 Tinananmen Square crackdown, EU nations will drop their condemnation of China's human rights record at the annual session of the UN Commission on Human Rights this year, according to western diplomats in Beijing.
The decision, likely to be finalised by EU Foreign Ministers meeting on the fringes of a General Affairs Council on Monday, conveniently comes just before a four-day visit to China by the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, and will help create a warmer atmosphere for his meeting with senior Chinese officials.
As holders of the presidency, it is up to the UK to decide whether to propose a resolution criticising China at the Human Rights session, which takes place in Geneva next month. A spokesman for the London Foreign Office said that no decision had been taken yet. Observers in Beijing say however it is now almost certain that neither the UK nor any individual EU country will put forward a motion critical of China this year.
Little has changed on the ground in regard to human rights in China, but several factors have led to a reassessment of the annual EU condemnations of China. One is purely pragmatic. The EU could not achieve a consensus on the issue last year as France, followed by Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece, all with growing economic and commercial interests in China, refused to agree to a unanimous motion.
Denmark went ahead with an individual resolution reproving China which was supported by several other EU countries, including Ireland and the United Kingdom. Beijing reacted angrily, cancelling contracts and exchanges with Denmark and "punishing" the other countries concerned, including calling off a visit by the economic czar, Mr Zhu Ronghi, to Ireland. In the event, the resolution was, as always, blocked by China when it came to a vote in Geneva.
Since then China has resumed a dialogue with the EU on human rights, which provides an alternative forum for debate on an issue which still troubles many European countries. This began in October. The latest round of the dialogue begins on Monday in the form of a two-day EU-China seminar in Beijing on the Administration of Justice and the Protection of Human Rights.
China also released into exile its leading dissident, Mr Wei Jingsheng, in December and has begun to make changes in its criminal code to transform China into a more law-based society. The United Kingdom have every reason not to get involved in a new human rights row with China. Relations are warming up for the first time after the acrimonious days prior to the handing back of Hong Kong in July, and trade and investment is growing.
Denmark, bruised by its experience last year, has no intention of becoming Beijing's whipping boy again, diplomats in Beijing say. Nor has Ireland any plans to take the initiative. Also, China has invited the UN Human Rights Commissioner, Mrs Mary Robinson, to make a ground-breaking visit to Beijing this year.
In an interview with The Irish Times on Wednesday, China's Foreign Minister, Mr Qian Qichen, said: "Facts have proved that dialogues are preferable to confrontation for they are conducive to co-operation and the promotion and protection of human rights.
If, as expected, the EU backs away from criticising China this year, the US will have to decide whether to propose a resolution censuring China. In the past Washington has always supported the EU resolutions on human rights.
If it does, EU countries would almost certainly abstain.