EU: The Internal Market Commissioner, Mr Frits Bolkestein, will warn today that the European Union could "implode" if it allows Turkey to join. In a speech at Leiden University, Mr Bolkestein will also claim that demographic trends point to the "Islamicisation" of Europe.
His comments will echo those of the Agriculture Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, yesterday when he said the EU should be cautious in opening accession talks with Turkey.
The commissioner predicts that the accession of Turkey, with a population of 68 million that is expected to reach 83 million by 2010, would necessitate profound changes in the EU.
"After the accession of Turkey, the EU cannot simply pursue its agriculture and regional policies as before. Europe would implode," he says.
A Commission report on Turkey next month is expected to recommend that the EU begins accession negotiations with Ankara next year, but Mr Bolkestein argues that admitting Turkey would inevitably lead to further expansion.
"If you admit Turkey, you will also have to accept Belarus and Ukraine - these countries are more European than Turkey.
"So, in 15 or 20 years we could have a European Union of up to 40 member-states," he says.
Mr Bolkestein believes Europe cannot hope to rival the US as a superpower and asserts Europe could be dominated by Islam.
"Europe's indigenous population is ageing and reducing, whereas the American is growing.
"The USA remains young and dynamic. Current trends allow only one conclusion: the USA will remain the sole superpower. China will be an economic giant. Europe will be Islamicised."
Mr Bolkestein says 12.5 million Muslims live within the 25 states of the EU, representing less than 3 per cent of the Union's population. The EU should learn from the experience of the Austro-Hungarian empire by resisting the temptation to expand too quickly or to assume too many powers.
Mr Fischler, speaking at the start of an informal meeting of EU farm ministers in the Netherlands yesterday, said the Commission should carry out a detailed impact assessment on the implications of Turkey joining the EU before taking a decision.
"We analyse the consequences [of Turkish membership] for the Union . . . if not, scepticism could continue to grow," the EU's farm chief told reporters, denying allegations that he is personally opposed to Ankara's application.
Mr Fischler predicted a rocky road for Turkey's accession campaign even if negotiations were successfully concluded. "I'm rather sure . . . if these negotiations come to a positive conclusion, it's also a given that there will be referendums in different member-states."
Mr Fischer said Turkish membership of the EU's farm policy could cost €10 billion, approximately the same amount of EU money invested in the 10 new member-states' farming sectors.
There was higher percentage of subsistence farming in Turkey.
