World temperatures will rise by at least three degrees by 2100, scientists tell survey

A majority of leading climate scientists expect the world will warm by at least three degrees by the end of the century, leaving much of the Earth uninhabitable, according to a survey by the science journal Nature.

The qualitative poll of scientists, who assess the impacts of climate change and likely future scenarios for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggests that a majority are sceptical that governments will find ways to markedly slow the pace of global warming.

This is despite commitments made by global leaders in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees.

The survey of 233 “lead authors” – featuring answers from 40 per cent of the group who compiled the IPCC report which warned of possible climate change-related devastation when it was published in August – shows that 60 per cent of respondents expect the world will warm by at least three degrees by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial times.

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Some 88 per cent say they think the world is experiencing a climate crisis, and nearly as many said they expected to see “catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes”.

The IPCC report concluded fossil fuel emissions are driving unprecedented planetary changes, threatening both people and the ecosystems that humans rely on for food and other resources. Nature conducted the anonymous survey of the authors who took it in a personal capacity.

Some 50 per cent say global warming has caused them to reconsider major life decisions, such as where to live and whether to have children, while more than 60 per cent said they experience anxiety, grief or other distress because of climate change concerns.

However, the survey also found signs of optimism: more than 20 per cent of the scientists expect states to limit global warming to 2 degrees or less, while 4 per cent said the world may meet the target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.