Historic climate change deal expected in Paris

The world is on the brink of a major breakthrough on climate change, with an historic agreement expected in Paris today that will limit global temperature increases to “well below 2 degree Celsius” above pre-industrial levels.

The deal has come after two weeks of intensive negotiations, including three all-night sessions this week, at the COP21 Summit, in Le Bourget.

Crucially, the text for limiting global warming includes a reference to moving towards a more ambitious 1.5 degree target.

Parties, including environmental campaigners, have welcomed the addition of the longer-term goals, including a move to “emissions neutrality”; better transparency; guaranteed climate financing of $100 billion a year to 2020 for poorer countries; and five-year reviews to ensure each country keeps up their ambition levels.

The potential of the accord was described by the conference president, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, as “a big step forward for humanity as a whole”. Mr Fabius was due to present the final draft today with the 50 final bracketed areas of text, denoting disagreement, removed.

Well-placed sources told The Irish Times they expected the agreement to be sealed later today after difficult negotiations yesterday.

“I will present a text that is as balanced and as ambitious as possible,” Mr Fabius said last night.

The agreement will have no immediate implications for Ireland, which negotiated as part of the EU bloc.

Agrifood sector

However, the higher emissions targets could mean a new regime of carbon taxes or levies on agriculture and the agrifood sector, which accounts for a third of Ireland’s greenhouse gases.

UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said he was optimistic. “This negotiation is the most complicated, most difficult but most important for humanity”, he said.

On the implications for Ireland, climate expert Prof John Sweeney, of NUI Maynooth, said all Irish transport, including trains, would need to be electrified by 2050 and Irish agriculture would have to pay a carbon tax. “With economic growth, Ireland will be one of the richest countries again in two-three years’ time,” he said.

“I just do not expect to see any special favours for Irish agriculture.”

Polluter pays

With an increase of 300,000 planned in the national herd, and no appreciable reduction in emissions, Prof Sweeney said a price would have to be put on agricultural emissions under a “polluter pays” principle.

“We will have to adjust our agriculture taxation system to reflect that.” He said the most likely outcome was a carbon tax on agrifood companies.

Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly welcomed the reference to 1.5 degrees and said Ireland, like Europe, had sought an ambitious agreement that included transparency and long-term goals.

He defended Irish agriculture policy, which he said was among the most sustainable in the world.

“We have analysis that shows that though the dairy herd is going to increase in coming years, we can do so with the amount of emission we have at the moment,” he said.