Engineers make plans for an island of 8 million people

A PREDICTED population of eight million people on the island by the 2030s will require major new roads, railways, energy sources, communications and flood defences, according to a new North-South development report compiled by Engineers Ireland and the Irish Academy of Engineering.

The report notes the proposals for an eastern bypass of Dublin city and suggests constructing a tidal barrier across the bay, with the bypass on the top alongside a rail line, could prove an effective solution.

The report, commissioned by Intertrade Ireland, a body established under the Belfast Agreement, deals with the implications of what has been predicted for Ireland over the coming two decades, with the major increase in population and the main economic development occurring on the Dublin-Belfast corridor.

Development is also predicted of an “Atlantic arc” linking Galway, Limerick, Shannon and Cork, as well as the development of “city regions” around Waterford, Sligo and Derry.

Infrastructure for an Island Population of Eight Millionclaims to be the first report to make a detailed assessment of the needs of the entire island, while factoring in climate change and energy security.

According to Liam Connellan, of Engineers Ireland, the report also differs from past reports in not offering different development scenarios, but in recognising that “this is where people will live and this is what we need to do to service them”.

While the report is an analysis of population requirements for the 2030s, its authors claim that decisions need to be taken now on how to invest in the necessary infrastructure.

In terms of energy security the report calls for an immediate debate on whether we derive power from coal, gas or nuclear fuel. Without offering an opinion on the merits of any, it says policy makers must decide the mix, which may involve the use of nuclear-generated power arriving through electricity interconnectors. But Mr Connellan said “a decision on the mix has to be made”.

Much faster and more powerful communications must also be developed, according to Mr Connellan, who said just 7 per cent of the island had broadband available in speeds of more than 10Mb/sec. Japan and South Korea were already well ahead of these and he said “we should at least plan to be where they are now, over the next 20 years”.

The island would also have to develop a water infrastructure network and the report supports plans for a pipe from the Shannon to Dublin. But it also supports plans for a pipe between Dublin and Belfast with feeds from Lough Neagh and other rivers along the route.

Half the population, some four million people, will live along the Dublin to Belfast corridor, which will require massively improved transport services.

With proper infrastructure this would offer a world-class development pole along the lines of Cologne- Frankfurt, Washington-Baltimore, Glasgow-Edinburgh or Vancouver-Seattle.

The report envisages a high-speed, high-frequency rail link between Belfast and Dublin. This would reduce journey time from about two hours and 10 minutes to one hour and 15 minutes, with trains every 15-30 minutes.

The report also recommends major development of the M1 motorway to a four-lane road delivering average speeds of up to 110km/h.

About one-quarter of the population will live in a southwestern arc from Galway through Limerick to Cork, and the report recommends major expansion of the rail services in Cork city, with the development of new lines and services to the airport.

City regions would be developed to an increasing density, which would make them easier to heat using district heating systems, possibly powered by energy recovery from waste.

Each of the city regions would be connected by rail to at least one other city.

The report also looks at climate change and notes predictions that sea levels may rise by half a metre by the middle of this century. To deal with this the report supports plans for a Liffey Barrier to protect Dublin.

INFRASTRUCTURE BANK:  FUNDING IDEA FOR PROJECTS NORTH AND SOUTH

GOVERNMENTS NORTH and south of the Border should consider an “infrastructure bank” to pay for the new roads, railways, development of ‘next generation’ communications, energy security and climate change, according to Liam Connellan, a past president of both Engineers Ireland and the Irish Academy of Engineering.

Mr Connellan said “big ticket” projects recommended by the report would cost about 5 per cent of the public capital programme annually, if financed solely by government.

But he said pension funds and other longer-term funding measures, including the involvement of the private sector, should be considered.

The “infrastructure bank” would hold these funds from either public or private resources, or a combination of both, lending to construction companies long term. Such banks already exist in the Nordic countries, Germany and Australia, he said.

The report said the UK anticipated 65 per cent of its infrastructure funding would come from the private sector; some 6 per cent from public private partnerships and just 29 per cent from public funds over coming years.

Among the “big ticket” items recommended in the report are:

• Dublin to Belfast high speed rail link including rail track and trains – €2.5 billion

• Motorway development including expansion of the M1 to four lanes – €5 billion

• Water Mains network linking Shannon and Lough Neagh to Dublin and Belfast – €1.5 billion

• Communications linking the eight city regions €5 billion

• District heating in cities – €1.5 billion

Public transport in Dublin would cost about €20 billion while there would be large, but unquantified costs for Belfast and Cork and lower costs for Waterford, Sligo and Derry.

Other funding options cited in the report include user-paid infrastructure, such as that at airports and ports where the developer decides what infrastructure is necessary and prices accordingly.

Also mentioned are user-paid charges where a regulator sets the price to the customer, as in electricity generation.