The British government has come down in favour of holding elections for a new Northern Ireland assembly in June, assuming agreement in the multi-party talks process by early April.
Ministers and officials fear that any undue delay following the proposed referendum campaign in May could turn the elections into 'a second referendum'. The increasingly tight timetable could require a special parliamentary Bill establishing the assembly 'in shadow form' pending the passage of detailed legislation enacting the terms of any political agreement.
This emerged last night as the Ulster Unionist and Irish Government delegations prepared for talks in Belfast on the specifics of proposed amendments of Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution.
Sources told The Irish Times that the Irish Government drafts had been expected to be tabled at the Stormont talks yesterday, and that their production was now 'imminent'.
The British government is confident the Irish formulation will satisfy the so-called 'Corfu test' (set in the margins of an EU summit by Mr John Major in June 1994) and will amount to a withdrawal of the territorial claim and an acceptance of the legitimacy of Northern Ireland's position within the United Kingdom so long as that is the wish of a majority of the people there.
However, senior unionist sources insist it is not 'a done deal' and maintain they are expecting changes in the Constitution which, while incorporating the principle of 'consent' into Irish constitutional law, might retain and reflect a continuing aspiration to Irish unity.
Answering questions in the Dail yesterday, the Taoiseach said the Government had discussed the general principles of constitutional change with the parties to the Stormont talks but had not yet discussed specific wording.
Mr Ahern also confirmed that, while the British hope to hold referendums on any settlement on May 7th or 8th, a later date might be necessary, given the Irish legal requirement for a 30-day campaign following the passage of the necessary legislation.
While conceding the possibility of a slight delay, Dr Mowlam, the Northern Ireland Secretary, told the BBC last weekend that she was anxious not to have any referendum campaign conducted in the teeth of the upcoming marching season.
However, provided the parties can meet the late March/early April deadline for an agreement on all three strands, the view is hardening in London that assembly elections should not be postponed until after the summer break.
Confirming the fear that this could amount to 'a second referendum', reliable sources say their preference is to hold the elections 'as soon as possible' on the back of an anticipated Yes vote in the referendums.
While stressing that everything is contingent on an agreement not yet guaranteed, it is known that UUP headquarters has already advised constituency parties to begin making preparations for the selection of candidates.