Egyptian officials deny reports that Mubarak has just 18 months to live

PERSISTENT REPORTS that Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak is terminally ill with cancer were embellished yesterday by an article in The Washington Timeswhich was picked up by Israeli and Arab media.

The article held that western intelligence agencies believe Mr Mubarak (82), has only a year or 18 months to live. Egyptian officials flatly deny he is ailing.

Last year he was devastated when his 12-year-old grandson died, and last winter he underwent surgery in Germany for the removal of his gall bladder. He spent six weeks recovering at his residence at Sharm al-Shaikh on the Red Sea coast.

In spite of these reports, the Egyptian leader attended a military parade last Thursday, and on Sunday held separate meetings with US envoy George Mitchell, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Mr Mubarak resisted calls from the US and Israel to exert pressure on Mr Abbas to agree to move from proximity talks to direct talks with Israel with the aim of achieving the “two-state solution” to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Mr Mubarak seems to agree with Mr Abbas that there is no point in making the shift until there is progress in Mitchell-mediated indirect talks. According to Palestinian sources, Israel has not replied to Palestinian proposals on the border of a future Palestinian state and security arrangements – the issues Mr Mitchell set for this phase of the peace process.

If the Egyptian president were to press Mr Abbas, Egyptians, Palestinians and Arabs could accuse Mr Mubarak of capitulating to the US and Israel without extracting guarantees from them that direct talks would be worthwhile. As a sign from Mr Netanyahu that he is serious about peacemaking, Mr Mubarak would like Israel to agree an Egyptian-mediated deal involving the exchange of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, captured four years ago by Hamas affiliates.

Mr Mubarak is reluctant to upset Egyptian voters in the run- up to October’s parliamentary election and ahead of the September 2011 presidential poll. He is determined to maintain control of the assembly through his National Democratic Party (NDP) and to stay in power for as long as possible. So far, the NDP has refrained from proposing any presidential candidate. This means he remains the party’s choice.

He has refused to name a successor, but Mr Mubarak prepared for the succession by securing the adoption of a law that gives the assembly speaker presidential powers for 60 days until a special election can be held. This law stipulates that to be eligible, candidates must be part of the leadership of a political party for one year.

This provision favours Mr Mubarak’s youngest son, Gamal (47), who has been groomed for the top job and is now serving as chairman of the NDP’s policy planning committee.

Gamal Mubarak is considered an efficient manager, and is credited with effecting the smooth liberalisation of the economy. But he is blamed for the deepening divide between rich and poor, castigated for rampant corruption, and rejected by Egyptians who eschew dynastic succession.

The president’s agenda could be challenged by his powerful inner circle and senior armed forces officers who favour intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who has, in recent years, played a high profile role in politics. His age, 75, could be an asset. A loyal supporter of Mr Mubarak, he could be a transitional figure who would ensure stability and a peaceful transfer of power to a younger politician.

Mr Mubarak also has to contend with opposition from a new quarter, the National Movement for Reform, headed by the popular Muhammad Elbaradei, who returned to Egypt this year after retiring as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr Elbaradei has injected energy into his campaign, transforming the stagnant Egyptian political scene where the NDP has been in power since 1978 and the opposition is dominated by parties that have no new ideas.