AN analysis of voting patterns in Dail elections from 1981 to 1992 has shown the liberal/conservative divide can play a major role in shaping governments.
A paper by Brendan Sinnott, Brendan J. Whelan and James McBride in the current issue of the Economic and Social/ Review found there was "no single structure that accounts for variations in party support for the entire period" but that factors of social class and urban/rural divide were fundamentally affected by a liberal/conservative vote.
On only two occasions during the period - in November 1982 and in 1992 was the liberal/ conservative vote mobilised. The authors speculated that this was because the issue of an abortion referendum came to a head in the run-up to the 1982 election, while three referendums on the issue of abortion coincided with the 1992 general election.
The study found that, in 1992, the liberal/conservative effect on Fine Gael was negative, while the ultra-conservative effect was positive. Back in 1982, Fine Gael had gained from the liberal/conservative effect.
Tracing the impact of the liberal/conservative division, the study found: "In the 1992 election it emerges as the dominant explanation of variations in Fianna Fail support and, between then and 1989 it was a factor in the growing support for the Workers' Party Then, in the 1992 election, it had effects almost right across the board."
The Labour Party vote, and particularly the combined left vote, was stronger in urban areas. The authors found this urban/rural contrast to be less significant than the conservative support for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael and the liberal support for the combined left.
In the absence of political pressure for yet another referendum on abortion and given the introduction of legislation on divorce, homosexuality and contraception over the past four years, it is possible the liberal/conservative divide will not play a major role in the coming general election.