Leaving Cert: Will CAO points go up or down for the course you want?

The question uppermost in the minds of most Leaving Cert students – and their parents – since the results came out on Wednesday is whether their results will secure them a course from their top choices.

In Wednesday’s Results 2015 supplement we published the entry points for all programmes in 2014 as a guide to what they may be next Monday when the CAO makes its first round offers.

Clearly, entry points for any given course will change based on this year’s applicants’ Leaving Cert grades, the number of students with high points who applied for the programme this year and the number of places offered this year by the college. Many other factors can influence the points score of the last candidate to secure a place on each programme, which is the published points requirement of that course.

In 2014 there was a surge in applications for computer science degrees. To meet high-tech employers’ needs, the Government decided to fund additional places on such programmes. Both factors meant the points for computer science programmes remained relatively stable last year.

A key factor determining a course’s points is the number of students who make it their number one choice on their CAO application each July. A second factor is the number of students taking particular subjects at higher level and those students’ overall performance.

When you look at both sets of data for 2015 a number of trends emerge. School-based science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem) subjects at higher level have grown this year and over the past few years in response to Government encouragement.

The numbers taking higher level accounting and European languages are also growing, reflecting confidence in economic recovery and employment domestically and abroad.

The popularity of these subjects among this year’s Leaving Cert cohort was reflected in their final course choices on July 1st, which I believe will lead to certain changes in Monday’s CAO points levels.

Engineering, technology, law, architecture and other construction-related courses are likely to see a significant rise in CAO points. Points for arts, science, social science and primary teaching are likely to stay at a similar level to last year.

A small drop in points is possible for veterinary science, pharmacy and physiotherapy. Applications for agriculture indicate its points are likely to drop significantly on 2014.

The numbers applying for science have levelled off in the past two years, and applicants listing it as their first choice are down by more than 1 per cent this year at 9,307. These application numbers will still leave points requirements north of 500 in colleges such as UCD and Trinity, but other colleges will make offers of level 8 honours degree programmes in the 400-450 points range.

Applications for engineering/technology programmes are up this year by more than 14 per cent at 7,741. Their points will increase.

Numbers listing architecture as first choice have increased by 15 per cent to 698 and construction-related courses such as construction management, surveying, valuation have recovered to their pre-2008 levels. They are up 14 per cent in 2015 to 526, and CAO points will likely be up on Monday.

Application numbers for law seem to move in tandem with public perception of the health of the overall economy and the construction sector in particular. Applications numbers in 2015 are up 11 per cent to 2,492. Accordingly, points are likely to rise.

It will be a relief to nursing applicants to see numbers down by 2 per cent in 2015 to 5,476, so points should remain stable.

On the other hand, applications have increased for what CAO calls “other healthcare”, such as occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, optometry and so on, by 12.5 per cent to 2,266.

Applications for the course with highest points in the State, veterinary medicine at UCD, which requires a minimum of 585, are down 7 per cent in 2015 to 583, although this won’t bring points down by more than five, if at all.

Pharmacy and physiotherapy had similar decreases in applications this year with the number of first-choice applications at 358 and 748 respectively.

The points for medicine dropped substantially by 14-18 in 2014, following the reconfiguration of the Hpat test. So it is not surprising to see a small increase in medical application numbers in 2015. First-choice application numbers are up 106 or 4 per cent to 2,978. Points may rise slightly on last year.

Application numbers for dentistry are up 6 per cent to 339.

First-choice applications for arts/social science are down 1.5 per cent to 16,622, so the huge numbers of students seeking places on these programmes should see points remaining stable on Monday.

For primary school teaching the news is similarly good, with application numbers virtually unchanged on 2014. First-choice application numbers are up 30 to 5,011.

The pattern in art and design is similar, with only three extra applicants on last year, at 2,228.

Business courses remain popular and applications are up 2.3 per cent to 11,976. This could mean a 5-10 point increase for popular courses, and points for business generally won’t drop this year.

The numbers applying for agriculture/horticulture as first choice are down by 19 per cent to 657 from 811 in 2014. This is by far the largest percentage decrease in application numbers to honours degrees in 2015 and should see some students on lower scores who would have missed out in recent years getting places.

Tomorrow: What to do on Monday when the CAO offers come out