Leaving Cert exam papers ‘not very predictable’, says Minister

Concerns that the content of Leaving Cert exams can easily be predicted by students and teachers are "not sustained" by the findings of independent research.

A study into the predictability of the annual exams, which had been commissioned by the State Examinations Commission, said there was a false impression that question content could be pre-empted through strategic preparation or advice.

The researchers from Queen's University Belfast investigated six Leaving Cert subjects.

Exams in economics, French and design and communication graphics were said to be “quite” predictable overall but not to a problematic extent.

While the report will be released later this week, their general conclusions were published yesterday in conjunction with the announcement of a new Leaving Cert and CAO points system.

Rote learning Minister for Education Jan O’Sullivan said predictability was sometimes considered “good” as there was commentary to the effect that too many surprises could be unfair to candidates.

In other quarters, it was considered “bad” and “often cited as a factor in leading to inappropriate reliance on rote learning”.

She welcomed the study as a means of tackling “some of the more popular myths”, saying its findings showed “the Leaving Cert exams are not in fact very predictable and that those who rely on their predictability too much often do not perform as well as those who prepare more fully for the examinations”.

In its conclusions, the study does recommend a more regular programme of revision of syllabuses.

It also calls for greater emphasis on “the assessment of higher-order thinking skills in the examinations, in keeping with international trends in assessment”.

Ms O’Sullivan also welcomed progress by universities to reduce the number of undergraduate courses to 2011 levels, and their intention to further reduce by 20 per cent the number of entry routes by 2017.

This was aimed at allowing students to specialise later in their higher education and to reduce the complexity of the CAO system.

The response from universities has been mixed, however, with UCD and Maynooth University to the fore in promoting broader entry routes on the CAO.

Trinity reconfiguration

Trinity College Dublin

, which uniquely requires arts and humanities students to select their combination of subjects at CAO stage, said it was “about to embark on a very far-reaching review of its undergraduate curricula and structures”.

The university said “it is not possible at this moment to anticipate the shape and scope of the reconfiguration” but all stakeholders would be consulted.

No targets have been set for institutes of technology to similarly reduce the number of course codes, although they have backed the thrust of the reforms.