IN the five years between 1994 and 1999, the Department of Education will have received a staggering 900 million ECU (around £750m) from the European Social Fund. Thanks to the ESF thousands of people have received third level education.

The regional technical colleges, long the poor relations, will receive 325 million ECU during the current Structural Fund round. About half their income comes from the ESF with the Department of Education acting as distributor.

However, all good things come to an end. ESF money could be a lot harder to come by after 1999. According to Professor Damian Hannan, of the Economic and Social Research Institute we will be lucky to hold on to half our current funding.

In Brussels, there is considerable uncertainty about the future. A major mid term review of all EU programmes, including Irish programmes, is currently under way. A senior Commission source says: "What will happen after 1999 is anyone's guess. It's very early days as far as the Social Fund is concerned."

A complete overhaul of EU funding cannot be ruled out, but some sort of regional package should remain, the source believes. It is likely that much of Ireland will lose its objective one status - this would mean an end to EU support for many second and third level institutions although training bodies such as Teagasc and FAS would be unaffected.

Under this scenario, RTCs on the western seaboard would continue to get ESF aid, including funding for maintenance rants. Elsewhere colleges would have to look to the Government in an effort to make up the difference.

Innovative programmes aimed at early school leavers could be especially exposed as they lack the backing of powerful lobby groups. However, many RTC courses could also be vulnerable, so it seems essential that such courses, often vital to the economy, be incorporated into the mainstream curriculum.

Philip O'Connell of the ESRI shares Hannan's concerns. He believes that not enough planning is going on at Departmental level.

RTC administrators remain remarkably sanguine about the future. Brendan Goggin, registrar with Cork RTC, says: "The college's long term strategy is a matter for central Government. We expect that the college will continue to grow. The education we provide has been a key to our economic success."

Kieran Taaffe, vice principal of DIT Kevin Street, believes that ESF funding will probably last beyond 1999. "Ireland has been very adept at hanging in there and extracting funds. The theory is that less will be coming, but civil servants give no warning that there will be a fall off."

The Department of Finance is likely to play an increasingly important role in resource allocation. The EU may also place greater emphasis on education targeted at the long term unemployed and the most deprived. This could imply a need to design new courses geared to this end of the market. It may also imply closer links with second level institutions.

Hannan feels that it may make sense to teach some RTC type courses in second level schools, allowing non academic students to be targeted earlier. The cost of providing such courses would also be less. The Dutch model has a lot to offer, he believes. "There, enormous attention is paid to the development of intermediate skills in areas such as electronics, chemicals and computing as well as occupations such as nursing."

He also believes that the RTCs have a vital role to play in providing people with intermediate skills to local labour markets. However, in areas where no RTC exists, it is vital to ensure that a proper Post Leaving Cert course structure exists. Currently, many such areas have severe labour shortages.

Hannan is concerned at the trend within many RTCs towards academic as opposed to vocational course work. He opposes efforts by many RTCs to look for university or quasi university status.

Taaffe concedes that the abolition of university fees could lead to a drop in student applications to RTCs. "We will be monitoring this very closely," he says. "If students vote that way it will increase the pressure on institutions to seek upgrading."

Fianna Fail's education spokesman, Micheal Martin, warns that vital decisions are being made largely in the dark. "A strong interdepartmental committee should be put in place to assess what is going on with the Social Fund and to prepare for the post 1999 period."