Analysis: Schools are safe. So why are so many parents taking children out of class?

Across classrooms today there will be an unusually high number of empty chairs: a sign that many parents are keeping their children at home to ensure Christmas family gatherings are as safe as possible.

“Already this week the difference in classes in some schools is noticeable,” says Pairic Clerkin of the Irish Primary Principals Network. “I totally understand why parents are doing this. We’re in the middle of a pandemic. We need to be flexible and understanding.”

But how risky are school environments? Would early closure do anything to suppress transmission of Covid-19? And do official figures capture the real scale of the problem?

At a private meeting with public health experts this week, school leaders were told that latest official data points to the fact that schools continue to be safe environments.

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The key metric which public health officials point to is the positivity rate – the proportion of close contacts of confirmed cases that test positive for Covid-19. This is crucial as it reveals whether schools are sources for transmission of the virus.

This positivity rate in schools is currently at 3.5 per cent (up from 2.5 per cent the week previously). By contrast, the positivity rate in the wider community is between 10 per cent and 12 per cent.

“We were advised that schools are safer than the wider community,” said one school leader at the meeting, who declined to be named. “Closing the schools wouldn’t make children any safer.”

In addition, the incubation period for Covid-19 can be up to 14 days, so taking children out a few days earlier is not a guarantee against spreading the virus.

Many parents, however, are anxious. At a time when they are due to meet older and more vulnerable family members,  considerable numbers are not prepared to take any risks. Following several high profile cases of schools where clusters of the virus were detected in recent days, some are especially nervous.

Again, the data shows that these outbreaks - scary as they are -  are the exception rather than the rule. A total of 19 clusters were detected last week, for example, out of 4,000-plus schools. Even among these cases it has not necessarily been established that transmission took place within schools, but may have occurred in the community.

The question of whether schools should be allowed to close following significant outbreaks has also been a source of debate in recent days.

Some school principals have been ordered to re-open their schools after deciding to close without seeking permission from authorities.  It's easy to see why some schools have done so when faced with anxious parents and the daunting prospect of growth in Covid-19 cases.

The Department of Education, however, says these decisions should only be taken by public health officials who have the knowledge and expertise to accurately determine the risk facing a school community. Officials points out that the school leaders are, generally, happy with the arrangement.

Big concern

The big concern among school leaders is not so much what is happening now, but what will happen in January.

If the virus spreads like wildfire in the community over Christmas they fear it will be impossible to keep it out of schools.

The option of closing the schools for a week after the Christmas holidays has been floated and has some supporters.

Public health officials, however, have told school leaders that allowing young people to mix in uncontrolled environments for longer would likely create a bigger problem.

For now most school leaders feel that following public health advice has worked so far and will be the safest approach over the coming weeks and months.