Ireland’s economic interests are likely to be best served by a Yes vote, according to most independent economists in a survey published today.
The study, Assessment of the Impact of The Lisbon Treaty on the Irish Economy, collated the responses of 66 non-government and academic economists to a number of questions related to the economic impact of the result of the Lisbon referendum.
Just under 91 per cent of the economists expressed the belief that a Yes vote best served the economic interests of the State, while 9.2 per cent said these would be best served by a No vote.
"That's quite an extraordinary consensus from a profession not always known for agreeing," said Alan Gray, managing director of Indecon International Consultancy Group, which conducted the research.
"Whether it is because economists are afraid to put their heads above the parapet and get involved in debates in the moment, or whether they are all involved in Nama or the crisis in the public finances, it is surprising how little input into the debate has come from the professional economics areas," Mr Gray said.
When canvassed on their views of the likely effect of a Yes vote on foreign direct investment in Ireland, 65.2 per cent of respondents said passing the treaty was likely to facilitate such investment, while 31.9 per cent felt it would have no impact. Just under 3 per cent said passing Lisbon would be likely to hinder attracting foreign direct investment.
However, the report stated: "Ireland is fighting to maintain its share of foreign investment in an increasingly difficult environment and a No vote would be likely to damage Ireland’s prospects."
A large majority of economists (82.1 per cent) also said a Yes vote would help to develop international confidence in the State's economy, while 76 per cent indicated passing the treaty would "significantly assist management" of Ireland's relationships with the EU, with a similar percentage (75 per cent) saying a Yes vote would "significantly enhance" Ireland's reputation.
Commenting on these findings, Mr Gray said Ireland was a small region in Europe that was "very much influenced by perceptions of it". He said one of the remarkable issues was "how sensitive the Irish economy is to small changes in the perceptions of bondholders".
The report said a number of economists expressed concern over the potential impact of a No vote on the cost of borrowing and of how sentiment towards the Irish economy can affect this issue. It said the sensitivity of the State’s debt spread to changes in sentiment is a "remarkable" feature of recent developments "and highlights the vulnerability of the Irish economy to international perceptions".
Fifty-three per cent believe a Yes vote would help narrow Ireland's debt spread, while 47 per cent said Yes would have no effect on the spread.
Mr Gray said although the survey revealed a belief there would not be major economic positives from a Yes vote, it did warn of "a significant impact" in terms of foreign investment and international confidence in Ireland if a No vote was passed.
The survey was conducted through questionnaires over the past month. The 66 economists questioned are employed at nine centres of independent analysis, including Trinity College, University of Dublin, and The Economic and Social Research Institute.
According to Indecon, no economists working in the media, banks or other financial institutions were included in the survey. The report is available online at http://www.indecon.ie/