For the Palestinians, yesterday was yet another deadline which passed without progress in the peace process. They had been led to expect that the latest round of talks would produce a deal on the US plan for Israeli withdrawal from 13 per cent of the West Bank before the 2 1/2-month Knesset recess. This did not happen. As a result, the Palestinians feel deceived by Israel, betrayed by the US and let down by Europe. Deceived because by this time they expected 90 per cent of the West Bank to be under Palestinian rule. But 97 per cent remains under Israeli military occupation. Betrayed because Washington did not fulfil its role as guarantor of Israel's signature on the Oslo Accord. Let down because the EU has not put forward its own initiative to save the peace process.
According to a prominent Palestinian commentator, Dr Ghassan Khatib, there was no deal "because neither the Palestinian President, Mr Yasser Arafat, nor the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, want a breakthrough arranged by their deputies. If there is going to be a breakthrough, they will make it personally and take the credit".
Neither side wants a breakthrough at present, Dr Khatib asserted. While Mr Arafat is using his threat to proclaim an independent state in May 1999 to build up pressure on Israel for territorial concessions, Mr Netanyahu "wants to waste time until it is closer to the Israeli election" due in 2000.
"The breakthrough will come before May 1999 in order to pre-empt Arafat's declaration," he said.
"The price of the breakthrough" on redeployment "will be no state".
This will allow Mr Netanyahu to say "he has prevented the emergence of a Palestinian State, reduced Israel's losses under the Oslo Accord, lowered Palestinian expectations and done a better deal than [the late Prime Minister, Mr Yitzak] Rabin," Dr Khatib says.
"Then Netanyahu will sweep into office once again. And we will continue to make concessions."
But while the Palestinian leadership concentrates its energies on trying to outmanoeuvre Mr Netanyahu, ordinary Palestinians "are waiting for their frozen rage to thaw and explode", Mr Khalid Suleiman, an informed commentator in Hebron told The Irish Times. Confined to their enclaves by Israel's policy of closure, suffering severe water shortage and enduring high unemployment and a falling standard of living, the Palestinian explosion can happen at any time, he stated.
"But the Israelis are trying to convert the potential explosion (which would be against them) into an implosion, a civil war." In such a conflict, Palestinian anger would be partly directed against the Authority which, because of inefficiency, corruption and the deterioration of the administration, is alienating more and more Palestinians. And partly against Palestinians who have benefited financially from the peace process.
Most Palestinians think the Oslo peace process is finished. Dr Khatib believes that "all future scenarios are bad for the Palestinians. Our best chance was under the coalition of Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties. But for the foreseeable future we will have to deal with Netanyahu and the Likud."
Mr Hannah Siniora, the chairman of the European-Palestinian Chamber of Commerce, said: "No progress is possible in the next couple of years. In the short-term, I am very pessimistic, but not in the long-term. Israel will suffer if it does not make peace with us. It is already entering a recession and losing investment from abroad."
He continued: "We will have our own state, self-determination, not even Israel can stop that. But we must survive the short-term. We must find a way to build our country in a time of political stagnation." Neither Palestinians nor Israelis can predict what will happen if Mr Arafat proclaims an independent state on Palestinian soil next May.
"Israel can annex areas of Gaza and the West Bank, but then it will be occupying parts of a state recognised by more than 100 governments, " Mr Siniora remarked.