Dublin North one of the most open contests

With just one of the four sitting TDs now running in next year's general election, Dublin North is one of the most open constituencies…

With just one of the four sitting TDs now running in next year's general election, Dublin North is one of the most open constituencies, and all of the candidates from the mainstream parties enjoy a more than remote chance of being elected.

It leaves Dublin North as one of the only constituencies where the majority of seats can be described as being wide open.

Green Party leader Trevor Sargent is the only sitting TD standing next year, following Fianna Fáil TD Jim Glennon's decision to retire, joining party colleague GV Wright and Labour's Seán Ryan who are also leaving politics.

Mr Sargent, who topped the poll in 2002, is seen as the only guarantee in Dublin North, and with the absence of any well-known figures on the potential ballot paper at this stage, he may well be elected on the first count.

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Although Fianna Fáil has no incumbents standing at this stage, it would be an electoral disaster for it not to take at least one seat. In 2002 the party took 38.2 per cent of the first preference votes, nearly two quotas. Fianna Fáil, while almost certain of retaining one seat, faces a struggle to hold its two seats following Mr Glennon's decision to retire. It now has two candidates, Cllr Michael Kennedy from Swords and Cllr Darragh O'Brien from Malahide. Mr Kennedy, a veteran of two general elections and one by-election, has polled relatively well on all occasions. Mr O'Brien is a relative newcomer but has the support of the electoral team of GV Wright.

The main question for Fianna Fáil, however is whether it should add a third name to the ticket. It has normally run three candidates in the constituency, one from the Swords area, one from Malahide and a third from the northern hinterland of Lusk, Skerries and Balbriggan. With the retirement of Mr Glennon, whose base is in the north of the constituency, there is no immediate successor, as the party has no sitting councillors from there.

There is speculation that the party might ask Dublin city councillor Deirdre Heney to stand, but her profile does not suit the area in the north of the constituency.

With Fianna Fáil and the Greens expected to take at least one seat each, it will leave Labour, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Socialist Party and the Progressive Democrats fighting it out for the remaining two seats.

Clare Daly of the Socialist Party, a sitting councillor and Dublin airport union activist, who polled 5,500 votes in 2002, is expected to perform well, especially given the ongoing controversies surrounding the airport and Aer Lingus, two of the biggest employers in the constituency.

PD Senator Tom Morrissey, whose electoral base has traditionally been in Dublin West, has switched to Dublin North, in the hope that a four-seat constituency gives a better chance of election to a smaller party candidate. Given the fact that he or his party has no base in the constituency, a victory by him would be no small electoral upset.

Brendan Ryan, a brother of sitting Labour TD Seán Ryan, and first time Fine Gael candidate James Reilly, are well positioned in the north of the constituency to benefit from Mr Glennon's retirement.

However, they will each have to poll at least 70 per cent of a quota on the first count, up to 7,000 votes, to be in with a strong chance of taking a seat.