DISSIDENT REPUBLICANS continue to pose a serious threat both in Northern Ireland and Britain, according to British and Irish security and intelligence sources, as security efforts are stepped up to tackle these paramilitary groups.
PSNI Chief Constable Matt Baggott has received almost a quarter of a billion pounds in additional funding specifically dedicated to tackling dissidents in Northern Ireland as MI5 maintains the dissident threat at “severe” in the North and “substantial” in Britain.
MI5 operates on five levels of threat: low, moderate, substantial, severe and critical. The “severe” threat in Northern Ireland means “an attack is highly likely” while the “substantial” threat in Britain means “an attack is a strong possibility”.
Security and intelligence sources say dissident groups such as the Real IRA and its offshoot Óglaigh na hÉireann do not have the capacity to mount a sustained bombing campaign in London, or Britain generally, but are capable of at least one bombing, and possibly more. “Certainly that is their aspiration,” said one senior source.
The London Timesrecently reported that a dissident republican cell is now operating in England for the first time in a decade, making a connection between this threat and the forthcoming royal wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton and the London Olympics next year.
British and Irish security and intelligence sources however, while acknowledging the “substantial” dissident threat, indicated that reports of a dissident London cell appeared to be exaggerated.
“The word ‘cell’ is probably an overstatement of where they are at and gives them a little bit more credence than they would merit,” said one senior source.
Last September, head of MI5 Jonathan Evans said dissidents posed a “real and increasing security challenge in Northern Ireland” and could be planning attacks in Britain.
Another indicator of the threat is the fact that pressure from Chief Constable Baggott and the North’s Minister for Justice David Ford has finally paid off and they have persuaded the British treasury to provide an additional £200 million over four years to combat the dissidents.
The Northern Executive is providing an additional £45 million to the PSNI to tackle dissidents, which means that over the next four years almost a quarter of a billion pounds over and above the normal policing budget will be committed to clamping down on groups such as the Óglaigh na hÉireann/Real IRA and the Continuity IRA. “The money will be spent on investigation, on more detectives, more equipment, transport, air support and sustaining our street presence in neighbourhoods,” Mr Baggott said.
Security and dissident sources estimate the republican groupings now have 600 to 800 members, and possibly more. The organisations have been involved in numerous attacks over recent years, including the murders of two British soldiers and a PSNI officer almost two years ago.
Last November, in addition to these murders, the Real IRA said it was responsible for five killings, four of them in the South, in the previous 13 months. In total it said it “executed” seven people since February 2002, alleging a drugs connection in all of the murders.
