The turn of the year brings out the prophet in all of us. At the risk of having to eat my words, these are my predictions for the run-up to the millennium. Delivering the Internet on television sets will not be a success. This is a safe prediction for the first half of the year, and my bet is that it will hold true well into the new millennium. I just don't believe that most people want to see web pages on their TV screens.
One exception may be hotel room services. For business travellers, the ability to look up web pages and access email without setting up a laptop PC and incurring outrageous telephone charges for spending half an hour online is a real benefit. But in the home or office there is no question that a computer is - and will remain - the best appliance for viewing the Web and exchanging email, despite the hopes of Sun Microsystems and Oracle to the contrary.
Those who expect to bring the Internet to the "non-computing" public via television ignore an important factor. Watching television is not a solitary activity. Switching off ER to check your email will do little for family harmony.
Another safe bet: 1999 will be a nerve-racking year for investors in Internet stocks. On the first trading day of the year, shares in Spyglass, the Internet software company, closed 32 per cent lower after the company said it would report a loss for the last quarter.
Since most Internet companies have yet to report a profit, why should one more quarter of losses upset Spyglass investors? In this instance, Wall Street analysts had been predicting a modest profit for the quarter. We can expect to see this pattern repeated time and time again over the next 12 months as Internet companies fail to live up to optimistic expectations and analysts begin applying traditional valuation methods to their shares.
Who will be the winners in 1999? PC manufacturers with spiffy new designs, manufacturers of flat-screen displays, and those involved in bringing customer service to the Internet top the list.
Let us give credit where it is due. The Apple iMac has been a huge success. It offers little in the way of new technology, but it looks good and it has been backed by a relentless advertising campaign. The "beige box" makers are not ignoring this trend. Expect to see a lot more imagination going into the design of computers this year.
A flat-screen LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor is on my wish list. It is one of those products you want to own at first sight. If manufacturers can get prices down to, say $500 (£312), I am convinced there will be huge demand - and dumps will be piled high with bulky cathode ray tubes.
Customer service is essential to the continued growth of Internet commerce and this year we can expect to see some retailers, as well as business-to-business sellers, bringing live video of real salespeople to their web sites. Others will have customer service representatives available to respond via telephone or instant messaging services.
Meanwhile, there are two big issues hanging over the high-tech industry in 1999. What will be the effects of Y2K bugs? And how will the Microsoft antitrust trial end?
There will be no catastrophic Y2K problems in the US, for example. This is not to say that computer failures will not cause some inconvenience, but fears of widespread business closures are unfounded. Unfortunately, the same may not be true of other parts of the world, such as eastern Europe and parts of Asia. Y2K bugs will not manifest themselves suddenly on January 1st, 2000. Many programs that deal with annual figures will start using new millennium dates in the coming months, so well before the end of this year, we will all have a much better idea of the magnitude of the problem.
Microsoft is the multibillion dollar question. With the US government still presenting its side of the antitrust case, and Microsoft yet to put its witnesses on the stand, it really is too early to predict the outcome of the antitrust trial. However, the scales of justice are currently tipping away from Microsoft, making it entirely possible that Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson will rule against the company.
But what then? If Microsoft loses, what will be the effects on the IT industry and on the millions of PC users who rely on Microsoft's products? For the duration of 1999, it seems unlikely that the status quo will be upset. Even if the court were to order a break-up of Microsoft - the most extreme remedy - it would probably take years to disentangle the company's operations. Moreover, Microsoft would certainly appeal against any such judgment, leading to long delays in any direct impact on its competitors and customers.
My hunch is that it will never come to that. Rather, Microsoft may seek an out of court settlement; a compromise agreement with the US government that satisfies both sides.
For Microsoft, this would be preferable to prolonging the legal battle. It would also relieve the US Justice Department of the difficult task of finding a way to clip Microsoft's wings without threatening the livelihoods of thousands of US technology companies and unsettling the entire world population of PC users.
The more immediate effect of the trial may be to breed disillusion among the top ranks at Microsoft. I would not be surprised to see one or two senior executives seeking out more pleasant ways to spend their lives than defending the company's success.