Agreement on power sharing in Northern Ireland could be at least three years away if Northern Ireland's politicians fail to do a deal by a November deadline, the Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern said today.
Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain said earlier this week that another attempt to restore the the stalled regional assembly would be unlikely until after 2009, when fresh general elections are expected in the UK.
DUP leader Ian Paisley yesterday said that it was unlikely a deal would be struck before the November deadline. But Mr Ahern said even that long-range estimate might be conservative.
"My own assessment is that it could be even longer," he said in comments made in Northern Ireland's second city of Derry where he was meeting politicians.
"The bottom line is that this effort is likely to be our last for some very considerable time."
The British and Irish governments set the November 24th deadline earlier this year, warning that failure to agree would put the administration into "cold storage", with direct rule from Britain continuing but with increased input from Dublin.
Mr Ahern reiterated warnings by both London and Dublin that the deadline was non-negotiable. "It's not an arbitrary date. The deadline is real. There will be no deviation or delay," he said.
Both Mr Blair and the Taoiseach Mr Ahern have invested huge political capital in Northern Ireland over the past decade.
The two premiers are due to meet tomorrow at Chequers, the British prime minister's country retreat, to discuss strategy.
A report from Northern Ireland's ceasefire watchdog is due in early October and is expected to say the IRA is honouring last year's pledge to pursue its aims by peaceful means.
Publication of the report is expected to be followed by all-party talks in Scotland later in the month, hosted jointly by both governments.