Decisive - if not emphatic - victory

ANALYSIS:For the first time in two decades the outcome reflected opinion poll results in recent weeks

AS RETURNING officer Róna Ní­ Fhlanghaile announced the final results of the referendum on the fiscal treaty just after 3.45pm yesterday, it became clear that the results from the final constituency to declare formally, Carlow-Kilkenny, had pushed the Yes vote over the 60 per cent mark.

For supporters, it was an important psychological threshold, allowing them to claim a victory that, if not emphatic, was certainly decisive.

In the preceding 24 hours the prospect of a low turnout (somewhere in the region of 50 per cent) had prompted a spate of frenetic 11th-hour texting and nail-biting from the Yes side worried about the comparatively small numbers voting. But the final result yesterday showed that the First Principle of Turnout – Low Means No – does not always hold true. The turnout was three percentage points lower than Lisbon I, which was shot down, and still there was a 20-point gap between the sides.

For the first time in two decades, there had been no dramatic swing or surge – the outcome reflected the consistent message coming from opinion polls over the past six weeks.

In the end, only five of the 43 constituencies voted against the referendum. And the overall broad-brush tropes were blatantly obvious.

Where constituencies were predominantly middle-class or rural, there was a strong Yes bias. Dublin South, Dublin South-East and Dún Laoghaire voted overwhelmingly in favour of the treaty, all recording Yes figures around the middle 70s.

It wasn’t quite as high as the 82 per cent recorded by two of these for Lisbon II, but then it wasn’t the second time of asking. The rural constituencies, even with large urban conurbations (such as Waterford and Wicklow) were also solid. It was only in poorer areas, and in places where Sinn Féin were strongest (Louth, the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is a good example), that the Yes vote was reduced.

On a regional basis, there was remarkable consistency between the vote in Dublin, and the rest of Leinster, and the national vote. Connacht (at 63 per cent) and Munster (62 per cent) veered a little more to the Yes side, with only the three Ulster counties trending the other way, slightly approving the referendum by 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

In that respect, the fact the two Donegal constituencies voted against the treaty was no surprise – Donegal North-East and Donegal North-West were the only two that recorded No majorities in the second Lisbon referendum. Sinn Féin has established a strong presence in the county and two of the party’s most highly regarded TDs are based there, namely Pearse Doherty in South-West and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn in North-East.

In addition, another TD in South-West, the Independent Thomas Pringle, was also virulently opposed to the treaty. The substantial 55 to 45 rejection in both constituencies would have raised few eyebrows.

Dublin North-West and Dublin South-Central voted against the treaty, albeit by relatively slender majorities. The evidence from tallies of working-class areas in those constituencies showed a thumping No majority.

Another marginal No constituency, Dublin South-West gained a bit of notice yesterday because there are three Government TDs (out of four) there and two of them are Ministers (Pat Rabbitte and Brian Hayes). However, the constituency is a predominantly working-class one and the Labour vote would traditionally have been seen as more left-wing.

The closest call of all was in Dublin Mid-West where the Yes side prevailed by a mere five votes (50.01 per cent to 49.9 per cent). What is unusual about this four-seat constituency is that there are no Opposition deputies here (there are two Fine Gael and two Labour TDs).

The constituency has been less enthusiastic than others about Europe and has relatively high levels of unemployment. As well as social housing, it has a high proportion of young families in starter homes that are in negative equity. Last night, Labour TD Joanna Tuffy said the paper-thin win was a significant victory as it had been a tough campaign and at times she had thought it was going to be lost.

“It’s more left-wing out here and we got the message over and over again that Labour needs to be stronger in Government,” she said. “In fact, what surprised me was the biggest single issue that came up was the Government breaching the pay caps for special advisers.” Indeed, the strong No vote in working-class areas underlines the threat that Labour and perhaps Fianna Fáil will face in the local elections in 2014.