Fine Gael is expected to postpone next month's selection convention in Dublin South Central following Gay Mitchell's decision to remain as an MEP after next year's general election.
The convention was scheduled for December 8th but it is now likely to be held after Christmas. There is speculation that the party may seek a candidate, other than the three declared convention runners, to replace Mr Mitchell.
His decision, although not unexpected, was a bitter blow to the party. He would have held his seat in the five-seater, which he has nursed assiduously during the 26 years he represented it in the Dáil. He was destined for senior ministerial office if Fine Gael returned to power.
"It's a blow for us in the constituency and for the party nationally," said a Fine Gael source.
Three candidates had declared for next month's convention: Cllr Catherine Byrne, a former lord mayor of Dublin, Crumlin-based Cllr Anne Marie Martin, and Ballyfermot-based Peter O'Neill.
Ms Byrne would be frontrunner, but her performance, measured against Mr Mitchell last time, was disappointing. Mr Mitchell secured 5,444 first preferences, while Ms Byrne had 2,012. Although the Fine Gael vote was down eight points on 1997, Mr Mitchell was first to be elected, securing 59 per cent of Ms Byrne's transfers. Ms Byrne had come third in the 1999 by-election in the constituency with over 4,000 first preferences.
That said, her performance last time was against the background of a steep decline in Fine Gael's fortunes nationally, particularly in the capital. Indeed, it was a measure of Mr Mitchell's grip on the constituency that he did so well when other high-profile Fine Gael TDs were defeated elsewhere.
Although there has been speculation that one of the Fianna Fáil seats could be vulnerable, if there was a swing against the party, the other four TDs in the constituency now seem reasonably secure in the light of Mr Mitchell's decision.
They are Fianna Fáil's Seán Ardagh, who topped the poll the last time with 6,031 first preferences, and Michael Mulcahy; Sinn Féin's Aengus Ó Snodaigh, and Labour's Dr Mary Upton.
A candidate to watch will be Labour's Eric Byrne, a former TD, who could gain from the absence of a Mitchell-like Fine Gael candidate.
However, Labour will have some ground to make up if it is secure two seats, an ambition thwarted by Mr Ó Snodaigh last time.
