Hang on to your millennium candle - you may need it in the 21st century unless the ESB can come to grips with a power-generating crisis.
Ireland's boom is creating problems for those planning power supplies. Economic growth has been accompanied by an increasing demand for electricity which threatens to outstrip supply. Demand has risen by more than 5 per cent during each year this decade, with the result that the State is now using 1 1/2 times more electricity than in 1990.
The generating crisis could soon lead to selective power cuts. Such blackouts would put the clock back to the late 1970s, before the Moneypoint generating station opened.
ESB customers came unwittingly close to a blackout on Thursday, October 21st. Demand for electricity traditionally peaks on Thursdays, with factories reaching maximum production. Demand is at its greatest between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m., when some plants are still operating and other workers have returned home and begun switching on domestic electrical appliances.
October 21st was no different from any other Thursday in terms of demand. However, the ESB was experiencing major generating problems. Ongoing maintenance at generating plants meant that the board was without almost a quarter of its 4,400 megawatt capacity. One megawatt is the equivalent of the power used by 1,000 households. The ESB also has the option of importing up to 200 megawatts of power from Northern Ireland through the interconnector on the Louth-Armagh Border. This interconnector was operating at full capacity on that day.
The crisis began at lunchtime, when it emerged that minor problems in up to six generating stations were causing a further 40 megawatts of power to be lost. A failed water-cooling pump at the Aghada generating station in Co Cork resulted in the loss of a further 150 megawatts.
By 2 p.m. the ESB was aware that it needed 25 megawatts of electricity it did not have. The contingency plan in such circumstances involves zoned power cuts across the State. The board was within minutes of introducing power cuts when maintenance workers at Aghada completed the repairs and got the generator back into operation.
An energy crisis the public was unaware of had passed.
However, the ESB realises that it may not be so lucky in the future unless it can curtail peaktime usage and increase capacity. Demand for electricity is growing at the rate of 200 megawatts a year, leading industry sources to warn of a major impending crisis during the winter of 2001/2002. The two new generating stations which are due to come on stream before then will not meet the increased demand.
On the capacity front, the ESB's options are limited to trying to keep breakdowns to a minimum during the winter months. With some generating plants up to 40 years old, this will not be an easy task.
Two private stations are planned, but both are currently the subject of planning appeals. Statoil and the ESB are proposing to build a 400 megawatt station at Ringsend, Dublin. CRH and Viridian are seeking permission for a 400 megawatt plant in Huntstown, Co Dublin. If permission is granted, neither of these stations is expected to be built in time to avert the impending crisis.